OIL CLOBBERED … BTC DITHERS

“When the market tries running somewhere … Yea? … where!?”

Oil gets pounded cuz of the coronavirus … meanwhile, it doesn’t bother stocks

cuz STFU AND BUY MOAR! … crypto dithers, and acts like the kid running to

somewhere, but doesn’t know quite where that somewhere is … confused yet?

… no shit Sherlock!

Another day of BTC just dying on the vine, and refusing to put in any kind of

range … and speaking of BTC, over at Coinexx the trading conditions in BTC are

better than PRIMEXBT, there’s only one small problem … that problem is MAX

leverage of only 5X … while it costs about $9 - $13 to trade BTC at PRIMEXBT,

depending on your volume, over at Coinexx it’s going to be about half that … but

what you have to be very careful about with Coinexx, is if the market gets the

least bit volatile, they’ll blow the bid/offer spread out to unheard of levels,

sometimes to between $75 - $100! … and if you happen to be in any position, this

is gonna piss you off to no end … I haven’t seen that at all at PRIMEXBT.

So, there is an alternative for better trading conditions in BTC than PRIMEXBT,

but it comes at a price … just thought you should be aware of what’s out there

… as far as oil goes, PRIMEXBT CAN BE WRITTEN OFF AS AN ACCEPTABLE

OIL CFD … today sees the bid/offer spread + commissions = upwards of 7 cents

per barrel … that these people are fools, there is no doubt … let them sit there

and pay for LP access and have nobody trade it, and they’ll still sit there and

scratch their dumb ass heads and wonder why.

… until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

SNOOZEFEST

“Crypto traders be like, please somebody shoot me!”

Oil not even worth commenting on it’s so lame … shit can’t move up or down, and

with the costs to trade it high, screw it … one of the worst range days in BTC I’ve

seen in  a while, with not even a $100 range 20 hours into the day … here again,

very high costs to trade and it goes nowhere … “tell me wise one, who wins in

this scenario”?

… until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

THOUGHTS ON CRYPTO

“Somehow it makes sense!”

Over the last approximate 6 ½ months, BTC has an SDEV [standard deviation] of

about $325 in its daily ranges … that’s not very far away from its current 20 Day

Range MA of $310 … if you wish to trade, for example 5 BTC [roughly $45,000

notional], the bid/offer spread is approximately $3, and the RT commission is

approximately $9 that you have to factor into the price … all told, that’s about $12

you have to overcome to break even, and that is approximately 4% of both the

current 20 Day Range MA AND the SDEV of the last 6 ½ months of daily ranges

… EXIT QUESTION: “who pays 4%of the expected daily range to trade

anything”? … given this data, no wonder banks ask no questions to open your

account!

Would you trade the DOW30 if the “net trading cost” [bid/offer spread + RT

commission] was 10 index points? … gold, if the cost was $0.70+? … how about

Cable [GBPUSD] if the cost was 4 PIPS? … all 3 are right at 4% … so if you

wouldn’t trade with those horrific costs, why would you do it via BTC, or any

other crypto which has similar costs?

One of two things has to happen in this space … 1) IVIX goes higher and stays

there, OR 2) commissions have to be lowered … don’t look for either anytime

soon … and right now, that’s a big problem in this space, cuz it’s to “Hoover

Dam” expensive to trade relative anything else you care to name … over time it

will be corrected, but on the other hand in the long run we’re all dead!

Oil? … I got a bad feeling about oil, that isn’t going away … the world is awash

in oil, so there’s no shortage of supply … on the other hand, the cynic in me says

certain parties promote, and then carry out, false flags to disrupt supply via

geopolitical drama that spikes price so they can sell … caught between a rock &

a hard place, where does oil go then? … “well, it goes nowhere, simply chopping

specs up and fading every move up/down with more money than anybody else

has” … it’s what banks do, and it’s what central banks encourage, and it makes

for a B. I. Itch in terms of trading conditions … and I don’t think it’s gonna

improve anytime soon … until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: CRYPTO WAKES UP A LITTLE

“Some days it sure feels like it!”

First up today is WTI Crude Oil, the 20 Day Range MA directly below.

click on any chart or table to enlarge

Like stock indices and gold, WTI is “skewed” about 20 cents per barrel due to

the “didn’t happen” war with Iran. With huge over supplies of crude from

everywhere, it’s hard to see how this shit can maintain any rally without

geopolitical tensions to support it … so, as long as Iran is hanging around and

making the case for potential trouble, crude has got no place to go.

Directly below, the crypto Dollar pairs 20 Day Range MA’s for the current week.

Some well needed VIX increases across the board, no matter how much … take

victories where you can get ‘em … of course, what makes crypto hard to trade, is

the cost to trade the various pairs … directly below, the “VIX MATRIX TABLE”.

For example, from the table above, you can see that to simply trade an

approximate $1,000 worth of EOS/USD [$3.45 per coin as I write], my RT

commission alone is going to cost me approximately 1.74% of the average range

… if I trade 300 coins, you can approximately double that to about 3.5% of the

range … right now, if I wanted to trade BTC, depending on my volume, I need

BTC to go $9.50 - $13.00 in my profit direction just to BREAK EVEN, and if you

decide to “position” a trade through rollover, it’s gonna cost you about $9 per

coin per day … add it all up, and if you happen to lose on a trade, that “vig” is

gonna leave a mark … if you’re trying to “trade it” during the day, you’re gonna

need at least a 70/30 batting average of wins/losses to simple break even and get

over that $10+ hurdle … $10+ ADDED TO LOSSES, AND $10+ SUBTRACTED

FROM WINNERS … and it’s just as bad if not worse in the other dollar crypto

pairs.

Directly below, the BTC crypto crosses.

And what I said above for the crypto dollar pairs, goes especially double for

BTC crosses … there simply isn’t enough here to warrant trading them cuz of

their extremely high cost + the spread … the 20 day Range MA’s simply have to

go much higher for these to be viable trading pairs.

Onto the week … until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas

I CAN’T MAKE IT MOVE

“How many times do I have to tell you Grandma, to leave oil alone!?”

I’m beginning to come to the conclusion, that crude oil is going the way of

FX … meaning, historic lows in VIX coming shortly, and then staying there

… quite frankly, unless something changes in this space pretty “Hoover Dam”

soon, then it’s time to let crude oil go “buh bye” … the way things are going, it

could be dead for years today, here at 1 PM EST, after the market has been open

for about 20 hours, crude doesn’t even have a 60 cent per barrel range … I

literally can’t even with that! … throw in high bid/offer spreads, high

commissions, and slippage, and there’s no way you make money with ZERO

IVIX.

Four months to the BTC “having” in May, nd I don;t see crypto doing anything

either … and if you thought the costs to trade crude were high, go check out

crypto and get ready to be shocked at how expensive it is to trade … up & until

BTC gets its 20 Day Range MA OVER $400, no way I’m even looking at it.

Wish I had better news, but I can’t make any of this shit move … it is what it is.

Blog update on Sunday … until then mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas

YOU JUST HAVE TO BACK AWAY

“I look in his eyes, and all I see is crude oil & crypto! … frightening”

How many times have I said this? … how do you kill spec accounts? … “you kill

IVIX and everything takes care of itself”! … and nothing is getting monkey

hammered quite as bad as crude oil & crypto … outside of the occasional

explosions, there isn’t anything here to get anybody’s “big girl panties” wadded

up over … it’s all chop and nothing more … nothing new under the sun here, and

avoid both spaces if you want money in your account.

… until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

BTC GOES BACK TO SLEEP … OIL DITHERS

“Sign seen at oil & crypto trading desks today!”

It ain’t cooperating! … oil with literally nowhere to go with the world up to its

collective ears in oil, and BTC not wanting to sprint higher … with the costs to

trade both a little stiff, especially in crypto, it makes for some unpleasant

trading experiences … thanks, no thanks!

… until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas