BTC HANGS TOUGH

“BTC Ready to pounce!”

Oil puts in its usual head scratching range day, and quite frankly given the cost to

trade it, unless you’re trading futures in it, I don’t see the point … too many other

great markets to trade profitably while oil either fiddle farts around, OR chops the

living shit out of your account with “false positive” moves … at a penny per barrel

with commissions, a great market if you can handle the action [most can’t] … at 3

cents per barrel, it’s a very dicey proposition.

BTC not only hangs onto the $9K level, it isn’t moving an inch backwards over the

week, and hovers right around $9800 as I write … more than likely, some big sell

orders just under 10K … the problem, though, is its cost to trade … you’re looking

at a total cost of about $11 - $13, depending on your size volume … BTC is roughly

in the same 20 Day Range MA as the DOW30, just looking at raw numbers

… would you pay 11 - 13 index points to trade the DOW30? … hell no you wouldn’t

… but you’ll pay that for BTC? … why, if your goal is to make money? 

As I’ve stated before, “Coinexx” lists BTC, and their bid/offer spread + commission

is about HALF of PRIMEXBT … but the problem there is that MAX MARGIN IS ONLY

5X, and if BTC gets volatile, the bid/offer spread can go anywhere … and when I

say anywhere, I mean anywhere … I’ve seen it at over $100 on occasions, and if

you happen to be on the wrong side of a trade when that happens, man are you

gonna be pissed … gradually, costs to trade BTC will come down, and most likely

PRIMEXBT will be one of the first to reflect lower commissions … like FX 20 years

ago to now, it just takes more market makers and players and costs go down due

to competition.

Blog update on Sunday … until then mi amigos … Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas

I’M NOT THE ONLY ONE NOTICING

 

“I only hope the authorities notice!”  

The collapse of volatility, which is ongoing & most definitely planned by the 

central bank manipulators, hasn’t gone unnoticed. Yesterday on ZH the 

following article, linked directly below.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-28/what-behind-crash-fx-vol-and-

when-will-it-finally-end

Quite a crash, but born out by the data in the 20 Day Range MA’s I keep 

track of and publish each Sunday, on the blog updates. We’ve known for a 

while that the 3 most volatile FX pairs have slowed down to a crawl, and 

more importantly what to do about it … which is, not trade them unless the 

appropriate numbers are there. And lately, they’ve been MIA, although

GBPJPY did have two decent days this week due to the “Brexit” lottery 

FUBAR, thank you very much Pols.

WTI Crude Oil is a little bit more troublesome, cuz I think it still has a ways 

to go before bottoming … the ranges just aren’t there, and unless today sees 

some big whopper of a range later on, the 20 Day Range MA is gonna go lower 

on Sunday again … and lo & behold, what we see more times than not is the 

infamous “Flying Wedge of Death” {FWD] show its ugly head and infect the 

market … and in a market that is slowing down, you simply aren’t gonna get 

the extended ranges necessary to either recover from a loss, or make any 

significant profit from a position that runs … what you get are “false 

positives” and/or chop.

Today’s action very troublesome in oil for another reason … the call spreads 

are too far apart to offer any kind of protection on a position … either we 

enter a position where the market is too far under a floor, or the alternative is 

the floor is too far away … and the way oil is bouncing around like a lab rat 

on crack, I’m not willing to risk 70 cents to make far less than that … and 

these were the options presented to us today in oil. NADEX needs to do a 

better job pricing their call spreads, not just in oil, but in a whole host of 

markets where they are to “Hoover Dam” wide to be of any use … “yea, good 

luck with that”.

Now, oil is starting to get close to the 56.00 floor on one of the call spreads, but 

with a $2 range, where does it go with 3 hours to expiration? … and even then, 

you’re paying a hefty 20 cent premium, so even if you get a corrective move 

higher, premiums will evaporate in your face … and for that risk, you end up 

making very little in return … by the same token, do you sell it now that it’s 

gone “Thelma & Louise” to the tune of $2 in 50 minutes? … and what do you 

expect the range to do? … on a pop back where do you puke? So, not very 

many decent options to explore in oil today.

FX pairs? … talk to me when the 20 Day Range MA’s go higher … until then, 

unless the dealers make an honest market, you’ll be a loser on the “volatility 

call spread strategy” … right now, you got better odds with a slot machine.

We’ll see what Monday brings … blog update Sunday … until then mi amigos 

… Onward & Upward!!

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas
 

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?