RISK OFF … SPEC STOPS GET TAKEN OUT IN BTC

“And those who bought at 10K, get the chance to sell at 9K!”

Before the NYSE opened, BTC was trading quite well, with a couple of good

algorithm buy trade signals … then came the message from “Stock Bellies”

going down, and Trump letting the ChiComs know “what’s what”, and suddenly

it’s “sell, Mortimer, sell”! … but hey, at least it trades, which is more than I can

say for traditional markets which stink.

Outside of early Europe trading action, I left BTC alone … instead, I focused on

what has to be one of the worst non-Holiday trading days ever seen in Cable

[GBPUSD] … what s serious bag of slop that turned out to be, with the daily

candlestick looking like an ink smudge … oh well.

Outta here … until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

THOUGHTS ON CRYPTO

“Somehow it makes sense!”

Over the last approximate 6 ½ months, BTC has an SDEV [standard deviation] of

about $325 in its daily ranges … that’s not very far away from its current 20 Day

Range MA of $310 … if you wish to trade, for example 5 BTC [roughly $45,000

notional], the bid/offer spread is approximately $3, and the RT commission is

approximately $9 that you have to factor into the price … all told, that’s about $12

you have to overcome to break even, and that is approximately 4% of both the

current 20 Day Range MA AND the SDEV of the last 6 ½ months of daily ranges

… EXIT QUESTION: “who pays 4%of the expected daily range to trade

anything”? … given this data, no wonder banks ask no questions to open your

account!

Would you trade the DOW30 if the “net trading cost” [bid/offer spread + RT

commission] was 10 index points? … gold, if the cost was $0.70+? … how about

Cable [GBPUSD] if the cost was 4 PIPS? … all 3 are right at 4% … so if you

wouldn’t trade with those horrific costs, why would you do it via BTC, or any

other crypto which has similar costs?

One of two things has to happen in this space … 1) IVIX goes higher and stays

there, OR 2) commissions have to be lowered … don’t look for either anytime

soon … and right now, that’s a big problem in this space, cuz it’s to “Hoover

Dam” expensive to trade relative anything else you care to name … over time it

will be corrected, but on the other hand in the long run we’re all dead!

Oil? … I got a bad feeling about oil, that isn’t going away … the world is awash

in oil, so there’s no shortage of supply … on the other hand, the cynic in me says

certain parties promote, and then carry out, false flags to disrupt supply via

geopolitical drama that spikes price so they can sell … caught between a rock &

a hard place, where does oil go then? … “well, it goes nowhere, simply chopping

specs up and fading every move up/down with more money than anybody else

has” … it’s what banks do, and it’s what central banks encourage, and it makes

for a B. I. Itch in terms of trading conditions … and I don’t think it’s gonna

improve anytime soon … until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

PRIMEXBT THROWS THE TOWEL IN ON OIL

“Fuck you, no I don’t!”

Well it appears PRIMEXBT has decided to “throw the towel in” on crude oil as a

legitimate & tradeable  CFD … today sees their crude oil bid/offer spreads go

north to 7 cents, and when you add in commissions, it puts the “net cost to

trade” at about 8 ½ cents per barrel … who the fuck is gonna trade that?

I mixed it up with ‘em today, voiced my displeasure & told ‘em what’s what

…  they shrugged their shoulders and said, “it is what it is”, and so I can no

longer recommend PRIMEXBT FOR CRUDE OIL TRADING … over the last few

weeks and the start of the Holidays back in mid December, FX CHOICE has

stayed rock solid at a 3 cent spread, with none of the bullshit that has taken

place at PRIMEXBT … well, it’s simple really … “if they don’t value the business

and don’t give a shit, then fuck ‘em! … nobody needs this shit”!

I hoped I could trade crude oil for their new PAMM, which they still say should be

sometime in Q1 2020, but it’s increasingly looking like that PAMM will only be able

to do Cable, along with some gold & silver at times, and crypto when it gets

active … oil is a complete bust, and once again, it looks like the 3 cent bid/offer

area is the best we can hope for right now, only I can’t trust PRIMEXBT to give it

to us … it is what it is, nothing we can do about it … it’s sad, but whaddaya

gonna do?

Meanwhile, crypto inches higher into 2020, but no really good range for what it

costs to trade Bitcoin [BTC], or any of the others … and until crypto heats up,

the FX space is the only thing they are excellent at … about 30 pairs including

gold & silver, take your pick … until tomorrow mi amigos

… Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OIL SHOWS A PULSE … CRYPTO DEAD

“Well, if it’s oil or crypto, I can’t say I blame you!”

Oil shows a little pulse today, but crypto is basically dead meat … quite frankly,

even though it’s during the 2 week end of year Holiday period, I’m disappointed

in PRIMEXBT’s oil CFD, as it is not showing the kind of consistency I want in a

CFD … too much bullshit with their LP’s, and at various times they blow the

spread out for no reason whatsoever … if this stuff had $3 - $4 ranges every day,

yea I could understand, but with the 20 Day Range MA at $1, and nothing really

going on, how can you justify paying anything more than 3 cents a barrel for

total cost? It simply makes ZERO sense … we’ll see what the New Year brings

before I climb all over ‘em and raise hell.

In crypto, you do realize it costs 10X more to trade BTC, on a round turn

commission, than it does GBPUSD? … what do you get for this? … well lately,

you get NADA cuz it’s not moving, and until it does, you have to stay away from

the space … just no other alternative, cuz every place else that trades BTC or

other crypto, the spreads are past ridiculous, the commission structure is

insane, and the margins are extremely high [5X tops] … so until BTC starts to

move, and its range gets higher, there’s no good reason to trade it cuz you’re

throwing money away for nothing … until tomorrow mi amigos

… Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: CAN ANYTHING MAKE OIL & CRYPTO MOVE THIS WEEK?

“What crude oil & crypto feel like right now!”

Can anything make any of this stuff move this week? … I’m guessing no it can’t,

so outside of Cable & maybe the “Tulip Bulb 30” manipulation providing a spark, I

don’t see any hope for either crypto or oil to move this week with New Year’s Day

on Wednesday …of course now that I’ve said this, look for explosives moves all

week.

Directly below, WTI Crude Oil 20 Day Range MA for the upcoming week.

click on ANY chart to enlarge

Directly below, the U.S. Dollar crypto pairs.

Directly below, the BTC crosses.

While BTC is stable around $300 [kinda, it’s going lower though], everything else

is getting “monkey hammered” lower. Oil in particular at $1, is really a come down

from where it was weeks earlier … it needs to be at least at around or above $1.50,

and we are nowhere near that … if you look at the VIX MATRIX TABLE over on

traderzoogold, you can clearly see that NONE of the BTC crosses is worth trading

… just simply way too expensive in terms of trading cost relative to its 20 Day

Range MA … unless you get lucky, there’s no way to win trading any of these

intraday, and carrying a crypto position is super expensive via “vig” … until

tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: OIL VIX TAKES A HIT

“Aaaaaaaaand oil was his name!”

Directly below, the 20 Day Range MA for WTI Crude Oil for the upcoming week.

click on any chart to enlarge

And Yup, we’re scraping the yearly low in crude oil VIX, and quite frankly I don’t

see it getting better for at least a few weeks from now, if then … I don’t see world

oil demand picking up that much, and with proposed production cuts in the works

by OPEC+, who wants to be the first one to trust these assclowns? … and so the

market sits and does very little as it tries to inch higher ... gonna be a big struggle

to maintain price above $60 - $61 IMHO … simply too many good trades and

markets elsewhere to trade that make a helluva lot more sense than oil right now.

Directly below, the Dollar crypto pairs.

BTC holding steady above $300+ for range, but underneath the figures for the

others, there have been some massive breakdowns going into year end … no

doubt, BTC is the “gold standard” for crypto, and as we head into 2020 and the

“halving” that comes in May, I Iook for price to be steady to higher throughout

the year … however it should be noted, that if you trade BTC the “net cost to

trade” it is very high … even smaller accounts and volumes will pay 0.12% of the

value of the notional you’re trading … that means you need to see BTC move in

your profit direction by at least $7.5 per 1 BTC before you make any money

… looking at the 20 Day Range MA for the upcoming week at $338.0, that cost is

2.2% of the average range … by contrast, note that trading Cable [GBPUSD] at

the same notional level as 1 BTC, costs about 6.3 cents per 1,000 notional … if I

traded 7,000 GBPUSD, the cost would be $0.45 … 7,000 GBPUSD = approximately

$9,100 … GBPUSD 20 Day Range MA for the upcoming week = 107.1 PIPS … the

cost to trade GBPUSD = 0.45 / 107.1 = 0.0042 = 0.42% … IT COSTS 500% MORE

TO TRADE BTC THAN IT DOES CABLE … something to think about before

trading … for me personally, I need to see BTC get above a $400 20 Day Range

MA before I will look at it.

Directly below the BTC crosses.

Anybody but me see a pattern in the BTC crosses? … right, they’re all moving

lower, which means leave them alone! … bid/offer spreads + round turn [RT]

commission levels most definitely need to be looked at before you trade any of

these crosses [see traderzoogold for the “VIX MATRIX” Table] … right now, every

single one of them looks extremely expensive to trade, and added to that fact

they show no ability to extend higher any average over weeks and months

… until that changes, why trade this sector?

Onto the week, we’ll see if there are any surprises … I doubt it … until tomorrow

mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas