SUNDAY UPDATE: GLOOM & DOOM IN OIL

“Want to know why crude oil has a hard time rallying? … here ya go!”

Who the hell needs OPEC? … the U.S. is a “net exporter” of energy now, unlike

the days of Jimmy Carter when we were at the mercy of others … it’s very hard to

gauge the “war premium” that is built into oil right now, especially after the

clusterfark with Iran a few weeks ago, but it’s clear any decent rally gets sold

pretty hard & fast if given the chance … given the relative high cost to trade

crude from a CFD perspective, if the market is in “limbo”, why attempt to trade

it?

Directly below, this week’s 20 Day Range MA for WTI Crude Oil.

click on ANY chart to enlarge

Directly below, the 20 day Range MA’s for USD crypto pairs.

At a minimum some stabilization of range’s … BTC especially needs a higher

value over $400 before I’ll look at it again.

Directly below, the 20 day Range MA’s for BTC CROSSES.

If you haven’t been over to traderzoogold to check out the “VIX MATRIX TABLE”,

go over and take a look, cuz I’ve put a new column that shows the total cost to

trade pairs relative to their average ranges … and it’s not good for crypto at

present, as costs are really high … at some point somebody does come along

and lower costs, and then the entire industry adapts overnight and costs suddenly

go down … over the last 20 years, we’ve seen this in FX and in CFD’s, in spurts

and dashes, and it will eventually happen in crypto … for now, though, the

industry seems content to keep high trading costs as a staple, with most crypto

exchanges keeping their -0.025% “maker” fee and their +0.075 “taker” fee on

crypto transactions … PRIMEXBT simply levels the field for traders with 0.05%

fee on every trade no matter whether you’re entering market orders or limit

orders. Like I said, someday somebody with big bucks changes the game and

moves the paradigm, but it doesn’t appear imminent … until tomorrow mi

amigos … Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!

-vegas

SURE THEY SAID … THE MARKET’S OPEN

“I hope it’s not crypto & crude oil!”

Well, if you’re in this clusterfark of a trading day in either crypto or crude oil, may

the force be with you … you’re gonna need it. Whew, what a waste of time

… come back Thursday maybe, but most likely Friday and see what happens

next … right now this is “Deadsville”!

No blog tomorrow cuz it’s Christmas… enjoy with friends & family … until

Thursday mi amigos … Onward & Upward!! … MERRY CHRISTMAS!!

Have a great & joyous Christmas everybody!

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: IF SHORT OIL, PRAYER IS ALL YOU GOT

“Especially if you went home short oil over the weekend!”

Some traders come tonight when markets open for the week, are gonna get a

painful lesson in market dynamics from crude oil … news of Saudi Arabian oil

fields, specifically its largest oil facility, being attacked via drones from what

looks like Iran, is most likely going to make tonight’s open a “six pack of Tums”

experience for a whole lot of traders … I simply have no idea what to expect

from price … all I can say is, the only thing you can count on is that the scumbag

LP banks will blow the bid/offer spread out to unheard of heights, and in the

process make crude oil untradeable for perhaps the entire week … who knows?

Directly below, this week’s 20 Day Range MA in WTI Crude Oil.

click on chart to enlarge

We’ll see what happens later, but this could either be a “false alarm” and price

doesn’t do much damage, or it’s a total clusterfark and the market becomes

totally dysfunctional … I dunno mi amigos, I dunno.

Until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: CHAOS REIGNS IN OIL

“Then I started to trade oil … now it’s every 5 minutes!”

“May the big money be with you”! … outside of that sage advice, I’m not sure

anything else I can tell you will help … right now, nobody really knows what the

future supply situation is about, regardless of the Saudi’s attempting to bully

price higher while talking production cuts … the bigger issue, that they can’t

control is world demand for oil … and that lands firmly in China’s lap.

I’ve read articles about the ChiComs hoarding oil, and 5 minutes later I’m reading

about how their economy is poised to implode and leave the world a complete

clusterfark mess … they can’t both be right, and it goes to the heart of the mess

the oil market is in, as it seems every 5 minutes the focus shifts from supply to

demand and back again … in the end, the deep pockets of oil money are having

their way with the market … see my shocked face!

Directly below, the 20 Day Range MA is WTI Crude Oil.

click on chart to enlarge

With this added uncertainty swirling about, the range has up ticked indicating

increased volatility … I don’t see that going significantly down anytime soon

… onto the week mi amigos … until tomorrow … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas

OIL GETS WORSE

“What is gone? … anybody who gives a shit about oil!”

Here after 1 PM EST, oil can’t even put in a 60 cent range … yikes! … does

anybody care or give a shit about oil right now? … SHORT ANSWER: “No”!

… can we go to the beach now?

Until tomorrow’s FED clusterfark mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

A WASTED DAY ALL AROUND

 

“Which useless trading path do I take today?!”

I have no idea why call spread premiums are so high at NADEX … in FX, the 

drama is over for now in “Brexit”, and in oil nothing is happening … and yet, 

there they are. “Well, they can be there all they want, but it doesn’t mean I have 

to be an idiot and buy them … cuz from where I’m sittin’, it’s a losing proposition 

right down the line”.

Last night was tempting in EURJPY, but given the “situational awareness” of 

what’s to come tomorrow, what is/was on the docket for today [nada], and the 

fact EURJPY has been comatose since the start of the year after the JPY 

clusterfark, isn’t exactly “awe inspiring” to say the least … granted, premiums 

are historically cheap, but ranges are way down in EURJPY, so show me 

something! … and of course, theis market hasn’t … today in the New York 

PM, with less than 2 ½ hours to expiration, EURJPY has a 52 PIP range, & 

GBPJPY has a 53 PIP range … Cable / Yen priced last night at the open at 

72 PIPS, makes this trade a disaster.

Well, speaking of disasters, hereeeeeeee’s oil! … 1 PM EST and oil has about 

a 75 cent range … and unless something happens here real soon this week, 

we’re looking again at a dramatic lowering of the 20 Day Range MA come 

this weekend for next week … volatility in this complex has been taken out 

back and shot … fugetaboutit!

Onto tomorrow and the FED … oh joy, oh fun … until tomorrow mi amigos 

… Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

  

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

HANGOVER FRIDAY

 

“What the hell happened & where am I … GBPJPY reflects!”  

Well, wasn’t yesterday special? … as if any market needs more drama coming 

from every corner, yesterday’s rumor of U.S. Treasury wanting tariffs against 

China lifted, gave the final “party like a rock star” boost to GBPJPY that 

blew shorts a new one … of course, it was quickly denied and markets deflated 

as fast as they went up … and after this blatant manipulation scheme burned 

& crashed, I’m left wondering how anything today can even remotely be in the 

cards … order books wiped out on both sides … political drama over ‘till 

Monday, and a Friday that sees every trader in the world hating Britain cuz of 

the clusterfark of a market mess that they have created. How can Friday 

possibly top this crazy ass day?

Which of course, only means that Call Spread premiums will be priced in the 

stratosphere opening the day’s trading … which, they didn’t disappoint, priced 

right around 80 at the open … 12 hours later and a dull Asia and first couple 

hours of European trading, and they’re at 60 … good luck making book with 

this stuff on a Friday after Thursday’s blow out.

But, once again, yesterday sees another manipulation attempt by government 

& apparatchiks alike, to bolster the SP500, to bring back to life the BTFD 

mentality in stocks, to punish the Yen [higher USDJPY], and most importantly 

crush short sellers … all this has side effects, and you saw it yesterday in 

GBPJPY, where if you tried to pick a top you got carried out “toes up”.

All of this leads to what I call the “Friday Hangover”, where getting anybody 

with a pulse interested in taking a position before the weekend and the Monday 

MLK Holiday, a tad difficult … that leads to dull trading action. Of course, 

things can always pick up in the U.S. session, but so far today Europe and Asia 

have said “no thanks”, we’ll sit this one out, and after the political drama the 

last couple of days, who can blame them. “In short, it’s a shitshow with no 

winners … we won by doing nothing”!

Outside of a quick $5 drop in gold at the European open, by somebody who no 

doubt is tired of hanging onto shit that isn’t moving before the weekend starts, 

there isn’t a “Hoover Dam” thing happening in markets … everything dead 

… as in D.E.A.D. … some of the dollar FX pairs with sub 20 PIP ranges [hello 

Swissy & Loonie], and stock indices completely devoid of any activity. “Quite 

frankly, I don’t think anybody wants to play today, and with massive winter 

storms set to hit the Midwest & Northeast, traders are out the door and headed 

home for a 4 day weekend, see ya Tuesday … you think it’s dead now, wait a few 

hours and it’ll be even worse”. So, where do you find volatility in this bucket of 

slop? … me neither.

Cuz lately, the music stops when Europe closes, and excepting either some 

bullshit story planted RE China and the tariff story, or something to do with 

“Brexit”, it’s a dead market. Today ain’t any different, and so we see again 

another day of high premiums and no trade signals cuz premiums are too high 

relative to volatility and you can’t possible make up the difference unless you 

get a “bigly & yuge” move … and it being Friday, I’ll take the bet it ain’t 

gonna happen.

So, blog update Sunday night … I’m outta here for today … until Sunday mi 

amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!
 

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?