CRYPTO GOES SLEEPYTIME

“But I’ll still take your worthless fiat!”

All the action today in markets limited to gold & stock indices … crypto dead in

the water, where BTC doesn’t even have a $200 range, and RIPPLE has only

about a 100 point range … and then there’s oil, which is a complete joke

… nothing to even comment on.

Blog update on Sunday… until then mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas

ALL MARKETS ON FED HOLD

 

“Well, if you are awake, you’ll wish you weren’t!”

“It would be nice if I actually had something to report … unfortunately, I don’t”.  

FX call spread premiums continue to remain too high for positions, given the 

20 Day Range MA’s we see at the end of the week … and if you bite and take 

the bait, more times than not you’ll wish you hadn’t … last night sees 

ridiculous premiums, IMHO, given the nature of the market starting this 

week, especially with the FED holding everything at bay ‘till Wednesday 

@ 2PM EST, when all hell breaks loose.

In oil, it’s simply a function of waiting until the 20 Day Range MA starts 

moving higher … currently, the oil market is sitting on 14+ month lows in 

terms of the MA, and that’s not a good thing when trading oil … NADEX 

simply mispricing protection and forcing you to overpay to play … “well 

guess what? … yea, screw that”.

Gold completely dead, so nothing to do there, as well as stock indices, which 

are literally scraping the bottom of the volatility tree … but which NADEX 

wants high premiums to trade, and it simply makes these untradeable at the 

moment.

Not much else to say … nothing is moving anywhere, and the FED comes on 
Wednesday … tomorrow more than likely will be worse … until tomorrow 
mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas
 

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

THE DIFFERENT WAYS THEY HURT YOU

 

“Yea, not quite that kind of hurt, but close!”

When markets are very volatile, market makers whether they’re at NADEX or 

scumbag LP’s at Turnkey, 1) jack the spreads higher, 2) demand and get more 

“slippage candy” from fills, and 3) jerk the market around violently looking 

for stops. When VIX is dead, they bleed premium out of your positions like 

water out of a squeezed sponge … it matters little which market.

After watching NADEX markets closely over these last months, I’m pretty 

sure they have only one market maker for all products and markets … I could 

be wrong of course, but I don’t think so … and that market maker [or LP] is 

IG Group, London, which coincidentally is their parent company. “Gee, no 

conflict of interest there, huh”?

What leads me to that conclusion, is the dramatic drop in volatility in pretty 

much all markets, but nowhere near the drop in premium “optionality” that 

should have come with the respective call spreads ranges going lower … well, 

how come? … well, how about cuz there’s no competition for starters, and 

they can pretty much price ‘em where they want … and when VIX drops, they 

don’t want to get stuck short “gamma”, so they price them accordingly 

… that means if you buy ‘em you’re more than likely overpaying 

“bigly & yuge”, and it’ll be like putting money in a slot machine.

Today a perfect example in GBPUSD … around 8:45 AM EST, the nearest 

floor & ceiling call spreads had combined premium of 110 PIPS … that’s a 

helluva lot of premium to pay for 6 hours 15 minutes to expiration, with Cable 

already having an approximate 130 PIP range … you gotta make up 110 PIPS 

somewhere, so if the market diddles around, you’re simply toast … well, the 

market has diddled around, and here at 1 PM EST, the premium is at 69 

… and if nothing happens until 3 PM EST, they’ll be a lot lower than that 

… again, the problem is they were vastly overpriced to begin with, and you 

would need something breaking “Brexit” wise to get that kind of move 

… maybe, but I wouldn’t count on it. 

By the same token, oil call spread premiums are also priced extremely high, 

and with today’s range of about 70 cents per barrel, good luck with that 

… there’s no way in hell you make money … and with oil’s 20 Day Range 

MA going to go lower again after this week, it makes zero sense to pay for 

something you’re not getting … viz., volatility!

Gold? … it’s its own special kind of stupid at NADEX … extremely wide call 

spread floors & ceilings, with most at $50, and one at $100 … not only does 

this mean increased margin cost, but it offers no optionality protection … add 

to that a very wide spread + commission, and who wants to trade gold with a 

60 - 70 cent net cost per OZ.? … and it’s the same in silver. Stock indices? 

… fugetaboutit! … VIX here has been literally crushed to a pulp, but call 

spread premiums are only down slightly … again, the LP isn’t gonna get 

caught short gamma to a bunch of small retail specs … you either pay up or 

don’t play … “well, that’s an easy decision to make, see ya later”!

So, we wait, cuz that’s all we can do … otherwise you’re playing slots, and 

that’s not what I’m here for or want to do … until tomorrow mi amigos 

… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

SUNDAY UPDATE: A RAY OF LIGHT

 

“So says the markets to volatility!”  

Do my eyes deceive me? … “as bad as volatility has become in almost all 

markets, there is a slight uptick in this weeks 20 Day Range MA’s for FX 

… albeit, it’s small, but it’s better than lower, lower, and then lower some more, 

that we’ve seen non-stop for the last 10 weeks or so” … a little ray of light at 

the end of the proverbial tunnel, but not much … I doubt it sees call spread 

premiums being low enough to take some positions, but we’ll see. Directly 

below, the 20m Day Range MA’s.

 

click on any chart to enlarge

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of note, stock indices continue to get beaten lower, as well as crude oil 

… today, the SP500 has a 20 Day Range MA, that is approximately 60% of 

what 2018 was for the whole year, and its value has gone down from 73.8 

index points on New Years week, to currently at 25.1 … that’s over a 60% 

LOSS in terms of index points on a 20 day moving average … “and if you 

somehow believe this is a coincidence and has nothing to do with FED 

manipulation, I got some beachfront property in Kansas you will love”!

WTI Crude Oil, for its part, has lost $1 per barrel since the start of the year 

… and it very much feels to me, like oil has no idea where it wants to go from 

here … one day psychotic up, the next day psychotic down … all coming of 

course in seconds and/or minutes that blow the shit out of the order books, 

leaving oil traders sitting looking at their screens wondering, “WTF was 

that”?! And NADEX not helping things with their idiotic call spread floors 

& ceilings being 10 miles apart … “when you need oil to go 70 cents in your 

profit direction just to break even, whether you realize it or not, you got a real 

problem on your hands with melting premiums” … add to that margins to 

said floors & ceilings, and it makes it hard for smaller accounts to trade this 

thing, especially when it can move $$$ in very short order.

I don’t think this upcoming week will see positions in FX, simply cuz the 

market makers will not price premiums for our profit benefit … it would be 

great if I’m wrong, but what really needs to happen is that volatility has to 

return to some kind of “normal”, instead of constantly moving sideways to 

lower … this week sees a slight uptick … let’s hope it continues. More likely, 

I’ll be looking at oil every day, although if gold presents something I could 

move there as well … onto the week … until tomorrow mi amigos 

… Onward & Upward!!

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!

-vegas
 

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

THIS DAY IS NOTHIN’ BUT UGLY

 

“What markets looked like today!”  

Call spreads, even though priced like a “blue light” special last night, turn in a 

muted performance today … it sure wouldn’t have been easy to make 

anything being long the volatility strategy … this is the wrong week.

I’m looking at oil this morning, and I’m having a very hard time getting a  

“grip” on this market at present … market moves so “Hoover Dam” fast, and 

the call spreads are usually not spaced right for limited risk moves, it makes it 

very difficult to make high probability trades … ditto in the binaries. Gold for 

its part today simply dead … not much of anything happening anywhere, and 

with 3 hours to go ‘till the day is over the SP500 with a whopping less than 17 

index point range … to say there’s nothing happening anywhere [outside of oil] 

is being kind.

If there was something to write about, I’d write about it … there isn’t anything 

to this day is the bottom line … we’ll see what tonight’s opening brings [I’m not 

optimistic] and then tomorrow … “yes, I know, it’s tough sitting through shit 

like this … welcome to the new central bank cartel trading paradigm”! … onto 

to tomorrow … until then mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas
 

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

SUNDAY UPDATE: BLAST INTO THE FUTURE!

 

“Dreams trump excuses!”  

I had planned on getting the last two tutorials done by today, but we’re now 

involved in something much bigger … can’t talk about it yet, but the upshot 

is “bigly & yuge”, at least from our perspective. Those subscribed in the 

signals service, will continue to receive free time before their 3 month free 

trial even begins … “that’s right, free until it’s free for 3 months” … UNTIL 

we’re finished with our latest project.

Directly below, our 12 other markets we keep track of and chart.

 

click on any chart to enlarge

 

 

 

 

 

 

Directly below, the daily versus the volatile FX call spreads at the open.

 

It’s no secret what’s happening in the call spreads … VIX is being wrung out 

by 1) a collapse in the stock indices VIX, and 2) the subsequent drop in ranges 

of USDJPY … all three volatile FX pairs showing declines, with EURJPY now 

down to approximately 88 … it looks very much to me we’re in for a period of 

declining FX ranges, probably into Easter … I’m going to need to see some 

real bargains on the call spreads to get me in, otherwise they are gonna melt 

right in front of our faces!

Over in “Download Links”, I’ve added a new file folder that will track 

monthly the recommendations of the signals service … January was OK, but 

2 volatility trades, one in CAD the other in GBPJPY, blew up in our faces 

when VIX dropped quite hard the two days we were in them … we’re not 

down much, but it highlights the need to get exceptional prices for the 

volatility strategy before putting positions in place, cuz when nothing happens 

these are like melting snow cones.

All this coming week, most of Asia is closed for Lunar New Year celebrations, 

so don’t look for any volatility call spread trades in Asia … we’d be paying for 

8 hours of nothing … I’m going to try and focus this week on WTI Crude Oil 

& gold, either in the binaries or in the straight trading of one of the call 

spreads … we’ll see how that turns out. 

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!

-vegas
 

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?