SUNDAY UPDATE: OIL REMAINS VOLATILE

“Walter Sobchak … official poster boy of WTI Crude Oil!”

Directly below, this week’s 20 Day Range MA in WTI Crude Oil.

click on ANY chart to enlarge

For a market that hasn’t really gone anywhere, aside from the Saudi Arabia drone

attack bullshit, it remains remarkably volatile … this week’s 20 Day Range MA

comes in at $2.10 per barrel … given a market price of approximately $53 per

barrel, that’s daily volatility of approximately 4% of the entire notional value of a

barrel of oil … the daily candlestick for the last 3 months directly below.

To put this into perspective, the current volatility of oil would equate to the

DOW30 having 1,000+ index point ranges every day … gold would be seeing $60

per Oz. range days … and Cable [GBPUSD] would be enjoying 500+ PIP ranges

every day … the difference of course, is that oil isn’t and can’t be manipulated by

government … the rest of the lot most definitely manipulated.

Now, that doesn’t mean oil isn’t jerked around by manipulators … it most certainly

is … just not government via the FED and/or other major central banks … truth be

revealed, there’s a BIG reason why between WTI and BRENT, approximately 2

million futures contracts per day are traded at 1,000 barrels a 1 lot … and that

reason is, every scumbag dictator with oil in the ground, every major oil company

& refiner, and every Cocaine Cowboy looking for action with a few dirty bucks, is in

the game and playing every day … welcome to the casino everyone, we’re open

24/5!

The “Traders Course” will be done next weekend, and with a solid, most of the

time, 3 cent spread with no commissions, FX CHOICE is a solid choice [no pun

intended] to trade either WTI or Brent crude oil. FX CHOICE is domiciled &

regulated by the IFSC in Belize, the modern day equivalent of Switzerland, and

you can enjoy the highest level of privacy, security, and safety of funds, with a

multitude of deposit and withdrawal options … they also have a very good 4 STAR

rating at Forex Peace Army, the internet’s largest anti scam website that tracks

and reviews forex brokers. Opening an account here is easy … sign up, log into

the back office, create a demo or live account and you’re done … for live accounts,

all you need is government ID to be verified and ready to trade.

It doesn’t matter which type of account you choose on the MT4; either MT4 Pro

demo/live OR MT4 CLASSIC demo/live … they both are the same with regards the

bid/offer spread and no commissions … as an aside, ALL of FX CHOICE CFD’s

are the same in either type of account … they have an excellent DOW30 CFD

which usually has a bid/offer spread of between 1.8 - 2.4 index points with NO

commissions, and their DAX30 spread of 0.70 - 0.85 index points with no

commission is one of the best in the offshore brokerage world, and as a further

aside the DAX30 opens each day at 03:30 server time, which is 8:30 PM EST, a

half hour before markets open in China, versus most houses [like Turnkey],

which open the DAX30 each day at 09:00 [2 AM EST] … so, if there’s news

affecting the DAX30, you got an extra 5 ½ hours where the market is open to

trade, and the bid/offer spread is only marginally higher during this time, maybe

1 index point higher than during the European day.

When the TC is finished, you can get the algorithms for crude oil … there are 2

scenarios for oil traders; 1) short term trader/scalper, and 2) position trading

DURING THE WEEK using the HR1 … currently, FX CHOICE has NO VIG, or

rollover charge for carrying a long/short position through rollover into the next

day [Turnkey & many others do!], so there are ZERO charges for that … FX

CHOICE servers are set to 00:00 at 5 PM EST, and the market is open daily from

01:00 - 24:00, except for Friday, where the market closes at 23:45 [4:45 PM EST]

… so, your exposure for carrying positions through rollover lasts one hour.

I’m not a position trader kind of guy, but I know there are traders who are … and

so, staff and I worked very hard to create a workable algorithm for position

traders in oil … although, I gotta say, with a 4% per day volatility of the entire

notional value of crude, I really don't think anybody has to hang onto anything in

this complex overnight … but whatever.

Onto the week at hand … until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!

-vegas

OIL CERTAINLY HAS REDISCOVERED VOLATILITY

“Just like oil!”

One oil algorithm trade today, off a secondary signal that didn’t yield much

… then oil collapsed to a new low below 57.00, and then rocketed up near

the high [58.80] so far … all in all a couple of bucks, but nothing major to

warrant any whoopie!

Really, the action when I came to the screen already has oil with n almost $2

range … and that usually means the U.S. session will be bullshit … which it

has been, with the entire U.S. day being nothing more than a gigantic

“Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] … I passed on the last signal trade, simply

cuz it’s after 1:30 PM EST, and didn’t figure it had anyplace to go … wrong

… this shit can go anywhere, anytime, it wants. As I write, it’s threatening

the high for the day, which would be a major reversal day if breached.

click on chart to enlarge

The white arrow got me in at 57.99, and the orange arrow got me out at

58.04 … spread was 4 cents … bid/offer spread today not very good,

hovering between 4 & 5 most of the day … got 4 on both trades, but 3 would

have been better … who knows what drives these scumbag LP’s to price oil?

Anyway, back at it tomorrow … until then mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

I’M TIRED OF THE FX “COIN FLIP”

 

“You know who you are!”

I grow weary of the NADEX FX “coin flip”, where premiums are high most 

nights and in the morning, intraday volatility sucks and shows zero signs of 

getting significantly better anytime soon, and it’s either a complete loss of 

premium or a small gain … this ain’t a winning formula. If you want to 

continue to trade GBPUSD, GBPJPY, & EURJPY, that’s fine with me, but 

until volatility is substantially higher consistently, I don’t see the advantage 

to us in this area … “hell, I can flip a coin and make the decision process just 

as easy, so why bother with them”?

Instead, tonight I’ll be looking at WTI Crude Oil & the Stock Indices, and 

again at the European open … it’s the only place where bid/offer spreads are 

anywhere near reasonable, combined with the fact premium levels in these 

two markets have FINALLY come down significantly … ‘bout frickin’ time 

… nonetheless, the way they are priced now, even slow days can make us 

money. So, back to oil, and most likely the SP500.

Until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!
 

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

IT’S A RIGGED JOKE

 

“When there’s no volatility and the trading platform is rigged!”

Another pitiful day, with ranges very low in oil, GBPUSD, & GBPJPY 

… given the premiums last night, it’s nothing but losses over 20 hours, no 

matter what the market does or doesn’t do … really just pathetic.

Just as pathetic is NADEX, with 4 PIP bid/offer spreads in GBPJPY, so even 
if you wanted in, you’re paying an arm & a leg just to get a position 
… seriously, when I see this, I just move on to something else, cuz there’s no 
way I’m paying 10 PIPS to trade volatility in GBPJPY … and anybody that 
does, especially in this low VIX environment is nuts. And it’s like every day & 
night is a replay of the same bullshit the day before … and in oil, it’s the same 
thing, with another week playing out to another drop in the 20 Day Range 
MA, unless things turn around quickly, and I don’t see that. 
 

This is depressing.

Until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

 

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

ANOTHER GUT PUNCH TYPE OF DAY

 

“When your trading day is worse than his day selling shoes!”

Think it can’t get worse? … well, there’s this week isn’t there? … and even 

with very soft call spread premiums last night, they still can’t produce any 

profit, simply cuz there is no market movement … hell, after 20+ hours of 

trading GBPJPY has a 46 PIP range … if you paid 49 at last night’s open, 

there isn’t any way your up money at any point in the day from where you 

bought it … it’s just “Evaporation City”.

WTI crude oil not much better, where it’s range is well less than $1 for the 

day … we’ve been here before this week and last, and don’t expect tomorrow 

to be any better. For FX, Friday is open, but nothing else is for “Good Friday” 

… ditto for Monday … so nothing really gets back to normal until Tuesday. 

Premiums are gonna have to be “giveaway” tonight to get me in, cuz I don’t 

think tomorrow will yield anything at all in terms of range … in fact, probably 

worse than today. 

There’s nothing we can do about it folks … it is what it is … volatility is
scraping the bottom of the river, and I can’t honestly ever remember trading 
conditions being this bad in the course of my career … sure, there’s been 
some slow times, but this is ridiculous. We’ll see what happens.

Until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!
 

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

FX GETS THE VOLATILITY GUT PUNCH

 

“And boy, has volatility gotten the punch!”

What’s left to say about these markets? … VIX everywhere getting “gut 

punched”, no more so than in WTI crude oil & FX. I can’t remember the last 

time Cable has been so slow, and in such tight ranges … and oil just continues 

to run like a snail.

Last night saw a dramatic drop in call spread premiums, but even with that, 

it’s not enough to overcome the premium evaporation when there’s no 

volatility. And right now, no tight range seems ridiculous enough to not be 

lower the next day … we’re still inside a weekly candle in Cable that goes 

back to March 10, and literally stuck in neutral, with ranges that get tighter 

every day it seems … frustrating, but nothing you can do about it … it ends 

when it ends.

Until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!
 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas
 

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

MARKETS ARE QUIET CUZ NOBODY HAS A CLUE

 

“Motivation … markets could use some!”

What with the POLS in Britain on the sidelines until Easter is over, and next 

week sees Japan on Holiday for the week for “Golden Week”, it’s pretty much 

a complete snoozefest for the foreseeable future. “We need some volatility 

… we ain’t gettin’ any volatility … and in that kind of environment, the call 

spreads premiums will eat you up if you decide to trade them”.

Premiums at the open last night were moderately over priced, no surprise 
here, as they often are, but with zero volatility, it’s a one way ticket to 
premium evaporation in price as the minutes and hours tick by … what you 
might gain on one side, you lose more on the other … and back & forth it 
goes, with the turns in price causing the worst price erosion in the call 
spreads. You just can’t win without some kind of volatility.

WTI crude oil for its part, dead in the water just drifting along. Nothing to 

see here until the 20 Day Range MA starts to recover, and so far we haven’t 

seen that at all … for the last 3 weeks, stuck at $1.22 per barrel … just as a 

reminder, it was at the first week in January when it peaked at $2.60 per 

barrel … that’s a greater than 50% loss of volatility in only 12 weeks 

… amazing to watch the manipulators take away the punch bowl isn’t it?

So, what are you supposed to do here? … I feel like the 2 Bobs in 
“Office Space”, asking the question to employees to keep their jobs … and 
I’m putting the question to the markets, but they don’t seem to care. In the 
meantime, nobody really has a clue what’s going on or where we go next 
… nobody.

Until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!
 

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?