WHO SAYS OIL IS SAFE?

“Thanks President Trump … long, wrong and now gone!”

Buy oil they said, what can possibly go wrong they said … well, tariffs on China

can make it all go wrong in an instant … markets have gone off the deep end with

this shit, and we can all thank government … only the banks win. My guess is, oil

in the 40’s is next on the agenda sometime next week.

So, onto tomorrow’s NFP report and we’ll see what happens … until then mi

amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

MORE MARKET BULLSHIT! … WHO’S SURPRISED?

“What can possibly go wrong!?”

What did you expect for today, a whirlwind of trading activity? … with nothing

changing anywhere, except the time and date, oil is stuck waiting for the FED, and

then NFP on Friday … quite frankly, I’m not sure either is gonna make oil move

one way or the other. So, we wait.

Until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: THEY SHOOT HORSES DON’T THEY?

“Sounds to me like she trades oil as well!”

Maybe Wednesday’s FED meeting and Friday’s NFP report will give oil some

impetus to move somewhere … maybe … if not, come back after Labor Day and I

don’t think you’ll have missed anything … yes, it’s that kind of market right now.

Directly below, the 20 Day Range MA chart of WTI Crude Oil.

click on chart to enlarge

I wish there was better news regarding oil, but with August approaching and the

world winding down for “vacation time”, it doesn’t look good for oil volatility

… and the supplies of crude keep building while world demand goes softer and

softer by the day … are the 40’s in our future once again in the days and weeks

ahead? … right now, it makes more sense than anything above $60, but whatever

happens it’s likely to be a grinding market … until tomorrow mi amigos

… Onward & Upward!!

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!

-vegas

WAKE ME UP WHEN SOMETHING HAPPENS

“Then I see an oil chart and I’m a mess!”

Trying to find the words for oil this week … “complete shit” comes to mind

rather quickly … like gold, it’s either screaming somewhere or dying on the vine

… it matters little whether you’re long/short, the spikes will find you.

Sure, I can sit here and regurgitate oil market data and sound like an analyst

… but I’m a trader, and my job is to find the easiest way to make a buck while

mitigating risk … in oil, that’s no easy task … and it gets even harder when there

is no news to change the market dynamic from either the supply or demand side

… in other words, oil is in limbo … stuck in the mid 50’s, it’s going nowhere … the

FED and NFP next week might have an impact, we’ll see … for now, though, leave

this shit alone and go do something that doesn’t raise your blood pressure to

dangerous levels.

Blog update on Sunday … until then mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: THE WEEK BEFORE OPEC

“Is this the bar scene from Congress or OPEC!?”

WTI Crude Oil’s 20 Day Range MA directly below.

click on chart to enlarge

Quite frankly, oil isn’t going anywhere without “surprises” … either from OPEC,

Vlad, the ChiComs via a trade deal, or sigma economic beats like Friday’s NFP

report which helped price rally into the weekend. There isn’t any trend in the

market at present, up or down, and price drifts until somebody panics over news

… at the moment it’s all this market has got.

So, unless you got a death wish for trading news, and love getting screwed by oil

LP’s that make the gold LP’s look legit, until next week is over and the OPEC thugs

& dictators have decided how much to cheat with production quotas, my advice is

to leave oil alone and go to the beach instead. We’ll see what happens this week

… until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great rest of your Holiday weekend everybody!

-vegas

OIL, SCHMOIL … WILL PICK IT UP COME MONDAY!

“What I say to oil today!”

Yes, oil gets a boost from the NFP report … yawn … pick it up come Monday mi

amigos … blog update on Sunday … until then mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great rest of your Holiday weekend everybody!

-vegas

OIL IGNORES NFP

 

"Like oil, what can possibly go wrong here!?"

Given what's going on in other financial markets today, oil is taking a breather ... for how long who knows, but NFP numbers confirm from the math whiz kids that overall economic conditions are slowing ... not bullish for oil.

Coinexx for their part, not playing again today, with ridiculous oil CFD bid/offer spreads ... just can't trade oil when all they want to do is rob you ... as I said yesterday, our choices for U.S. citizens are not very good ... either put up with Coinexx, or go the emini futures route via Investors Europe ... that's all U.S. citizens got on the plate, thank you very much U.S. nanny government. "It feels great to be Lepers of the world, doesn't it"?

Over on the gold blog, I announced a new algo for gold ... well, even though oil has an algo in "Download Links", using data since Feb. 2016 only, I have a scalpers algo for oil  as well ... sorry, can't give this one away. Since Coinexx is as bad as Turnkey in oil, my plans for demoing trades each day is moot ... what's the point if the spread is bullshit? So, what I'm going to do starting Monday is simply give buy/sell signals on the candlesticks, regardless of the spread so you can see the moves with the signals. I'll have more details on the Sunday blog update on how you can get your hands on the new algorithms.

I'm outta here early today ... never a big fan of trading on NFP Friday's ... blog update Sunday ... until then mi amigos ... Onward & Upward!!

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas

OIL GOES TAPIOCA

 

“What was heard around oil trading desks everywhere yesterday afternoon!”

“Well, that escalated quickly to the downside, didn’t it” … but here’s the thing 

… no follow through today whatsoever, telling me it was a stop hunt washout. 

Add to that the fact that CTA’s are 100% short in oil now, and today’s action 

makes more sense than just a “dead cat bounce”. 

Oil premiums today simply too high … I estimate you’d need to see about a 
$1.20+ range today to make any money from the call spreads available earlier 
this AM, pre NFP report. And once stock indices started their modest rally, 
oil shorts headed for the exits. Still, the technical picture in oil doesn’t look 
that great to support a booming price today … “who knows though, this is oil 
after all”.

Noon EST in New York, and things are slowing down … this day is over. 

Blog update Sunday night … until then mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great weekend everybody!
 

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS …  “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

NFP PRODUCES NO REAL MOVEMENT

 

“Seems legit to me!”

Nothing to really report today … over night saw some evaporation in 

premium, but nobody was really expecting this NFP report to be that 

important to the FX markets … surely not anything to do with GBPUSD, 

which has got its own gig going on now … in other words, unless there’s a 

gigantic “sigma” miss, it’s gonna have about 3 minutes effect on the market, 

and then it’s back to biz as usual … and sure enough, it fizzled.

Oil for its part, continues to be plagued by sub $1 ranges, and another week 
of declining volatility … we just have to wait for things to pick up here, or 
it’s a sure losing proposition.
 

We’ll pick it up again Sunday night at the open and go from there … blog 

update on Sunday night … until then mia amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great weekend everybody!
 

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

AN FX MESS

 

“Markets have a message for you!”

EURJPY looks and feels like it’s died … no movement, no ranges, no 

volatility, and still the call spread premiums are too high. GBPJPY & 

GBPUSD are like flipping a coin … some days OK, some days nice gains, 

and other days a complete and utter disaster … at the end of the day, what 

have you got? Crude oil today, another joke … an 80 cent range? … excuse 

me? … have you seen the call spread premiums in crude oil?

Which, in case you’re wondering, is why I believe NADEX has only one 
market maker [their parent, IG Group, London] … they can price anything 
they want, any way they want … competition? … what’s that?

Well, nothing to comment on really until we see some more trades … and for 

that we need to see reasonable premium pricing, something we sure as hell 

aren’t getting lately. Tomorrow is NFP … should be a nothing burger 

overnight, so we could possible see a trade early before the NFP … we’ll see 

… until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!
 

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

SUNDAY UPDATE: ARE FX VOLATILITIES TURNING?

 

“Ah yes, the pleasures of low volatility markets!”

For the first time in weeks, we finally see FX volatility pick up some … not 

much, but it’s better than another decline … it’s still got a ways to go before 

returning to normal values, but we’ll take what we can get. Oil on the other 

hand, continues to suffer from a shrinking 20 Day Range MA, and if not for 

Friday’s surprise NFP report, which doesn’t bode well for oil prices, this 

week’s value for oil would have been lower still. Directly below, our updated 

charts for the upcoming week.

 

click on any chart to enlarge

 

 

 

 

 

 

This week should see some major fireworks in GBPUSD & GBPJPY, if things 

unfold according to plan and isn’t cancelled by Pols, who noticeably kick the 

can down the road at the first hint of things they don’t like … but if schedules 

hold, look for another “Brexit” drama moment on Tuesday. Hopefully, call 

spread premiums won’t be priced into the stratosphere, but we’ll have to wait 

and see what happens.

So, onto next week … until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?