SUNDAY UPDATE: ADAPT OR DIE

“I trade oil … no worries … what can possibly go wrong!?”

In case you haven’t noticed, crude oil is trapped … stuck in a volatile trading

range, where world oil supply & demand seem immovable at the moment … sure,

at some point in the future, price will move out of this current mid 50’s range, but

that isn’t the point … point is, will you have a trading account by then or will it be

destroyed by this choppy bullshit we’re in now? … the usual buy highs, sell lows

that chop invites. So, adapt to this trading environment or die … that’s the choice

right now, simple as that.

Directly below, this week’s 20 Day Range MA for WTI Crude Oil.

click on chart to enlarge

Various headlines,Trump tweets, and the ever present Fed Pie Holes continue to

keep oil VIX elevated … however, it’s deceiving cuz it all happens in

microseconds, and trying to capture significant portions of these oil moves is

almost “Hoover Dam” impossible … quite frankly, this market is a mess right

now and I would avoid it … until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!

-vegas

WELCOME TO FED PIE HOLE DAY!

 

“How the financial MSM reacts to FED bullshit!”  

“Oh, won’t it be glorious”! … six [6] FED Pie Holes spewing forth bullshit 

today, so high you’ll need hip boots and a very large shovel to keep from 

drowning in the “Everything Is F-ing Awesome Baby!” pile … of course, the 

financial MSM over at shitboxes like CNBC & Bloomberg, will burn the 

airwaves assuring you to buy “MOAR” stocks cuz shut up … the purpose of 

this frenzy of faculty lounge Twits foisted on the public, is of course not to 

inform, but to assure you they know what they are doing … the fact that for 

about 116 years they’ve gotten every fucking thing wrong 100% of the time 

should not concern you … “why focus on facts when you got hopium”?

And so, like every other day, markets are relatively quiet awaiting 

instructions from the “smartest people in the room”, so HFT algos know 

which way to burn people … as I said yesterday, markets only move now on 

POL & Apparatchik bullshit … every “Hoover Dam” day it’s somebody or a 

group no-nothings holding court to direct markets for policy purposes 

… literally nothing else matters.

Overnight saw me put on a GBPJPY “overlapping” Call Spread position for 

signals subscribers, with very limited downside risk, where max theoretical 

risk was 29 PIPS, and real world risk was about 15 PIPS … it is one of my 

very favorite strategies for volatile markets, and GBPJPY is at the head of 

that list, and is an excellent strategy for either 1) low or medium volatility, 

and 2) falling volatility from high historical levels … however, having said 

that, it can also be used successfully in highly volatile market conditions as 

well, although a “ceiling to floor” and a “floor to ceiling” combination trade is 

better if priced right. But, and this is a very big “but”, the market doesn’t 

always give us decent pricing in this strategy … evidence of that can be 

readily seen in WTI Crude Oil & the stock indices, where pricing has reached 

the utterly ridiculous level.

It’s not my intention today to get into the “nitty gritty” details of the 

overlapping call spreads … much, much more detail in the tutorial coming 

Sunday night on Call Spreads … I don’t wish to be redundant, but let me just 

say, there are 2 very critical components for profitable trades from this 

strategy; 1) pricing, and 2) proper spacing … and you most definitely need 

both … we got that last night in the trade.

There are 5 NADEX markets that are very well suited for the  

“Overlapping Call Spreads” … better than the other 9 markets … in order of 

relative importance; 1) GBPJPY, 2) GBPUSD, 3) EURJPY, 4) DAX 30, 

AND 5) DOW30. The first three [3] especially, will almost always give a  

“pop & drop” during the trading day at some point, no matter the overall 

volatility environment. But, as I said, conditions have to be right or you walk 

away … much more in the upcoming tutorial.

Today’s trade sees me looking for a modest down move in GBPJPY from last 

night’s open … directly below, the trade tickets for the buy/sell sides.

 

click to enlarge All 

When GBPJPY moved lower, I rang the register, albeit a little early cuz their 

was more to the move, but as I explained to signals service subscribers after the 

trade was through, capturing that first move out of the box, early in the Asian 

session, since we were risking about 15 PIPS, it’s critical you ring the register 

at some point … it doesn’t matter if it keeps going … what matters is it doesn’t 

snap back with a vengeance and bite your donkey, which happens more 

frequently than I care to think about … “what makes pairs like GBPJPY so 

dangerous, and at the same time so potentially profitable, isn’t only their ability to 

put in ranges in all kinds of volatility conditions, it’s their ability to seriously 

“pop & drop” at a moments notice … and those moves you take advantage of 

while you can without looking back over your shoulder and playing the “what if” 

game … in a pair like GBPJPY, there is no room for hindsight”!

Well, it didn’t take long and the trade liquidation tickets directly below.

 

[The ticket on the left should be a red sell ... I changed it before I sold.]

Looking at today’s schedule from last night, it makes even more sense given 

ECB minutes in the morning and 6 FED Pie Holes lying during the NY day 

… so, even though I got out early, and I know some subscribers did better 

than me, I’ll book the 60% profit on risk capital and move on.

  

Even with today’s scheduled ECB minutes and FED Pie Holes, already we’re 

starting to see a drastic wind down of VIX, most notably in stocks, as ranges 

collapse from just days ago … “think this is a coincidence? … hardly”.

So, onto tomorrow and the end of the week … not looking for much tomorrow, 

as next week brings plenty of event risk, especially in anything Cable related 

like GBPJPY … I don’t think many people want to bite off risk on a Friday 

and head into next week … we’ll see what happens, but traders are “skittish” 

at the moment, and that should see a relatively quiet Friday session.

And with that, I’m outta here … until tomorrow mi amigos 

… Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!
 

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

WARNING WILL ROBINSON … WARNING!

 

“Move fast or get eaten!”  

“I’m calling the top! … yup, IMHO, we’ve seen the highs in the VIX for markets 

all across the MT4 … I don’t think current levels of the 20 Day Range MA’s for 

FX, WTI Crude Oil, & stock indices can go any higher, and expect over the next 

4 - 10 WEEKS, to see a precipitous decline in volatility that will leave many a 

trader in the poor house … well, we ain’t gonna be one of ‘em”!

Simply put, volatility is getting shorted … rallies & breaks in the NADEX 

“Volatility Call Spread Strategy” aren’t seeing the spread strategy expand much 

on moves, and all it takes is a tiny correction, and the wolves pounce … “today 

sees ample evidence of this, as last night we positioned a GBPUSD call spread, 

that leaked water when the market did little, then saw Cable rally about 50 PIPS 

and the spread was barely able to rally 15 PIPS … subsequently, Cable backed 

off back near the lows, and when the FED Pie Hole moved his lips and sent 

markets flying, Cable rallied fiercely approximately 60 PIPS, while the call 

spread rallied about 25 PIPS … say what you want, but this isn’t a bullish 

volatility scenario for the call spreads positions … it’s like running with an 

anchor around your waist”!

Not to worry, cuz the signals service ain’t a “one trick pony” … and the 

strategies outlined in the NADEX Call Spread Tutorial, out this Sunday night, 

covers all of our options … both long and short volatility strategies are written 

about, and after reading the material, you’ll have a better handle on which 

strategies are optimal for profits given the outlook for volatility … and right 

now, with the 20 Day Range MA in the SP500 over 70+ index points, there’s 

no place but “down goes Frazier”! … “and with that, you can kiss goodbye the 

VIX in oil & FX as well, although not as much … gold? … who gives a shit, it’s 

already so lousy, it can only get “lousy-er-er”?! 

Last night after the open, I positioned a call spread in GBPUSD … the 

numbers were right, and the trade tickets directly below.

 

click to enlarge ALL 

President Trump’s speech did nada, and Asia was completely devoid of any 

FX action … only when Europe rolled in, and about an hour after the open, 

did Cable spike … “and when you’re in a volatility position and you get a spike, 

you better be there to liquidate when it’s over, or it’s losses all around! … I did 

that, and signals subscribers got out at or very near the top for the European 

morning”. The liquidation tickets directly below.

 

“Yea, the trade “worked”, but not nearly as well as it should have … making 

1 PIP after commissions [and a few made slightly more I think] isn’t exactly 

ringing the register, but what has shifted is the market’s expectation of volatility 

going forward, and that is getting ratcheted down while the call spread premiums 

continue to open the day at wide levels, and then evaporate … this is what tells 

me it’s over for now, and we need a period of falling VIX levels across the board 

… that doesn’t mean there won’t be days when things go “bat shit crazy”, cuz 

there will, just not nearly as many as before, and when we look back 10 weeks 

from now, you’ll see I’m dead right! … so, the tutorial this weekend comes at a 

great time, cuz I’m betting not many know the correct procedures & strategies 

for taking advantage of falling volatility, without increasing risk … a quick 

glance this morning at SP500 premiums, oil premiums, and the FX crosses sees 

those “fat premiums” getting wasted, and those buying volatility in for a very 

rough ride indeed today”.

The dirty little secret in markets today, is that price doesn’t matter anymore 

… all that matters is 1) the correct interpretation of where volatility is at and 

where it’s likely headed, and 2) whatever some Pol and/or Apparatchik says 

when his/her lying lips are moving to send markets flying for policy purposes. 

“We’ve got a pretty good handle on the VIX angle, but negating risk is 

absolutely critical, cuz you never know when, where, or why the assclowns will 

speak and/or what they’re gonna say … today sees markets rally, but it’s just as 

likely 2 days from now one of Bostic’s Pie Hole faculty lounge Twits utters 

something completely opposite of what was said today and markets tank … it’s 

called crisis management by the minute, and markets basically ignore everything 

else”.

And just to reiterate, signals service subscribers are getting signals “free 

before the FREE 3 months even starts” … as many know, until all four [4] of 

the tutorials are finished and posted [the binaries tutorial is up and the call 

spreads is due this weekend on Sunday], subscribers FREE trial isn’t even in 

effect … I’m doing this so people can use the time to LEARN, without feeling 

the pressure to trade before they are ready … for many of you, this is new 

stuff, and it takes a while to understand what it is the trades on NADEX 

accomplish … so, use this time effectively and put it to your advantage, and if 

there is material, or signals, you don’t understand simply email me and I’ll get 

back to you ASAP … right now, plenty of people are doing just that … and 

what you eventually find out is simple: “this IS the only way to trade”!

Onto tonight, and we’ll see what new adventures the markets bring us for 

tomorrow. I’m outta here … until tomorrow mi amigos 

… Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?