SUNDAY UPDATE: THERE IS NO BOTTOM

“And the oil market discovers this at tonight’s open!”

Oh boy, if you’re somehow long oil over the weekend, give your account my

condolences over the train wreck that’s about to hit you at tonight’s open … and

if you haven’t heard already, on Saturday Saudi Arabia decided to fuck both Vlad

& U.S. shale producers and start an oil price war, announcing huge discounts on

Saudi oil and opening up production past 10 million bpd, that could go as high as

12 million bpd … and trust me, the damage won’t be limited to simply the oil

complex, but will reverberate into everything else in a deflationary way … this

is not good.

Directly below, the “STOCKS, CRYPTO, & OIL VIX MATRIX TABLE” for the current

week.

click on ANY table or chart to enlarge

Directly below, the 20 Day Range MA for WTI Crude Oil, for the current week,

which is about to go markedly higher as price collapses.

Directly below, the 20 Day Range MA’s for selected high flying NASDAQ STOCKS,

for the current week.

I don’t see how this news on oil is good for stocks, cuz it’s hugely destabilizing

and disinflationary, but who knows what APPL, AMZN, GOOGL, & TSLA do … but

I will bet this week sees increased VIX in all 4 high fliers.

Directly below, the 20 Day Range MA’s for crypto pairs, for the current week.

BTCUSD

ETHUSD

ETHBTC

XRPUSD

LTCUSD

EOSUSD

BCHUSD & DASHUSD

While the “cost to trade” these pairs is high by traditional standards, there

volatility is off the frickin’ charts as well, and the only 2 I would exempt from

trading is ETHBTC & DASHUSD … the others offer reasonable risk/reward and

are tradeable IMHO … and given the way they move, along with how well the

trading algorithm models their respective b behaviors, they’re worth a look.

The real newsworthy event for today, though, is oil … how low the open is

tonight I got no clue, but it wouldn’t shock me to see $5 - $10+ lower, especially

Brent … fasten your seat belts! … until tomorrow mi amigos

… Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!

-vegas

SURE! … I’LL TAKE THE CREDIT! … YOU’RE WELCOME!

“Make ‘em an offer they can’t refuse!”

Well, that got fixed quickly … now, keep it FIXED! … I don’t want anymore of this

horseshit, “we’ll put the bid/offer spread anywhere we want to” in crude oil and

let’s see if we can squeeze out a few more buckos from clients … fuck that,

clients aren’t stupid like you think they are … our trading costs matter! … and

with that, I’ll take credit for coming down on PRIMEXBT like white on rice.

So, back to normal trading conditions in crude oil [at least for now, let’s see how

long this lasts before they forget and greed takes over again in the halls of

power] at PRIMEXBT … and with these conditions, a great place to “trade” crude

oil … FX CHOICE still the place to be if you want to position trade, or position

trade the Brent - WTI oil spread, which is my recommended strategy for oil

traders.

Anybody ever see a slower oil rally than today? … I mean seriously, if it was any

slower, molasses in January in Moscow would run faster … still, oil inventories

later in the day and tomorrow morning, most likely keeping a lid on things

… range for the day still very anemic & pathetic.

BTC getting “monkey hammered” on technical selling … quite frankly, it’s been

weak for days on end, and needs a washout to get back higher … plenty of

stories around the wires, all mostly bullshit … 2 great short algorithm signal

trades earlier this morning in BTC, where short positions captured over $100 per

BTC, combined in both trades.

Back to oil, I’m looking at BRENT today, and directly below is the M1, where

BRENT went “buy signal” for the day … it occurred at 12:20 FX CHOICE server

time [6:20 AM EST.] … the actual “buy signal” to get long came a FEW MINUTES

LATER.  Directly below the chart.

click on chart to enlarge

And it’s been on “buy signal” mode the entire day … the chart above simply the

first trade. Those that have the “Traders Course” [TC] know this of course … if

you don’t have it, get it FREE when you open an account through my affiliate link

at PRIMEXBT, and trade crude oil … and today sees BRENT back to a 2.5 cents

per barrel “net cost of trading” at PRIMEXBT … you’re welcome! … until

tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: NEW OPPORTUNITIES IN CRUDE OIL!

“Butch gets it … too bad brokerage houses don’t!”

First, let’s get the stats out of the way for the upcoming week … directly below

the 20 Day Range MA for WTI Crude Oil.

Click on ANY chart to enlarge

Directly below, the Dollar crypto pairs 20 Day Range MA’s for the upcoming

week.

Directly below, the BTC crosses 20 Day Range MA’s for the upcoming week.

I said the other day, that on today’s blog post I would compare the oil CFD’s of

PRIMEXBT & FX CHOICE, and compare the two … so let’s do this!

SIZE OF CFD

PRIMEXBT: 100 barrel increments only, up to max position limit of 7500 barrels.

FX CHOICE: 10 barrel increments, no MAX.

MARGINS OF OIL CFD

PRIMEXBT: 0 - 300 BARRELS 100X [1%], 300 - 1,000 BARRELS 50X [2%],

1,000 - 5,000 BARRELS 20X [5%], 5,000 - 7,500 BARRELS 10X [10%].

FX CHOICE: 33.3X [3%] ON ALL SIZE

ROLLOVER “VIG”

PRIMEXBT: approximately 1 cent per barrel, long or short per day.

FX CHOICE: NO VIG!

ROUND TURN COMMISSIONS

PRIMEXBT: 0.02% of the notional value per barrel. At current prices, WTI =

approximately 1.2 cents per barrel, and for BRENT = approximately 1.3 cents

per barrel.

FX CHOICE: NO COMMISSIONS

BID / OFFER SPREAD

PRIMEXBT: 1.2 - 2.3 CENTS PER BARREL.

FX CHOICE: 90%+ of the time 3 cents per barrel, 10% of the time 4 cents per

barrel.

EASE OF OPENING ACCOUNT TO TRADE

PRIMEXBT: NO KYC, USE BITCOIN

FX CHOICE: Government ID only, fund with Bitcoin

TRADING PLATFORMS

PRIMEXBT: PROPRIETARY PLATFORM

FX CHOICE: MT4

Up until the middle of last week, PRIMEXBT clearly had the better trading option

for their oil CFD’s … then mid week, for some unknown reason, their oil spreads

ballooned out by almost a penny per barrel, the WTI going from 1.2 cents per

barrel to 1.8 - 2.3 cents per barrel … and of course, much to my letting them have

it for greedy LP’s, PRIMEXBT responded in the usual way, which is “we don’t

have any control over spreads” … during that time, FX CHOICE spreads

remained stable at 3 cents.

The clear area where FX CHOICE has a better tradeable CFD is if you’re interested

in positioning oil … there is no vig with the FX CHOICE CFD, so it can be carried

through rollover with no charge … in addition, it sets up and allows those who

wish to position WTI versus Brent crude oil trades & positions without penalty

… granted, you’d have to “leg” into each side separately, and there would be

3 cents on each side to deal with, but the point is the trade would be definitely

viable to consider, especially when there’s no penalty of vig to consider … over

time, this spread has been quite volatile … directly below in successive order,

the 5 YR., 1 YR,. 6 MOS., & 1 Month chart in BRENT - WTI oil spread.

So, those looking to position oil, without the worry of what happens on some

spike cuz SHTF somewhere on the geopolitical map, this spread makes sense to

trade, and the only place that I know of where there’s no “vig” on rollover each

day, is at FX CHOICE … and there’s no commissions, so the cost to trade the

spread is 6 cents … leg into it properly, and you can carry the position profitably

at first, and then monitor the position … and unlike a lot of places [hello Turnkey

& Coinexx], there’s usually no extra spread for BRENT, so it’s 3 cents a side. 

Bottom line is this: trade this spread at the edges, based on historical data,

legging into the spread and taking it overnight and/or the weekend when in a

profitable position … like I said, the spread offers protection against spikes or

shocks to the oil market, and with no “vig” it’s attractive to position trade it. You

can’t do this at PRIMEXBT, cuz they’re gonna beat you to death with “VIG” every

day. So, it’s out there oil traders … take the time to get to know the spread!

FX CHOICE won’t allow me to do the PAMM / MAM and be an affiliate and collect

rebate commissions … so I made the choice to do the PAMM / MAM for the

DOW30 cuz they have the best conditions for trading that stock index … but what

if you open an FX CHOICE ACCOUNT TO TRADE OIL? … some days PRIMEXBT

has slightly better trading conditions , and as we’ve found out this last week,

sometimes they don’t … can you get the “Traders Course” [TC] for free by

opening an FX CHOICE ACCOUNT just to trade oil, and maybe the Brent / WTI

spread? … No … but if you open an FX CHOICE ACCOUNT & join the

PAMM / MAM, and fund it with at least $200, yes I’ll send you the TC for free

… Happy Holidays!

Over the upcoming Christmas & New Years Holiday, I’m going to be doing some

analytical work on the BRENT / WTI oil spread, and more than likely probably

position trade it come 2020 at some point … so positioning the Brent / WTI oil

spread will join the DOW30 in the PAMM / MAM come the new year.

Onto the new week, we’ll see what it brings to the table … until tomorrow mi

amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!

-vegas