HOW DO YOU EVEN EXPLAIN THIS CRAP?

 

“Is it just me, or is the whole trading world gone loony tunes?!”

Short blog today, simply cuz nothing moved today … nothing … overnight FX 

was a joke … “volatility call spread strategy” can’t work if there’s no volatility, 

and boy there sure wasn’t any today … crude oil? … “fugetaboutit”! … less 

than a dollar range will always spell trouble, and today fits that bill perfectly. 

I don’t like to sit and twiddle my thumbs all day, but it’s better than losing 

money on signals that  go nowhere … so, the only thing to do is wait.

  

Onto tomorrow, and we’ll see what happens … Onward & Upward!!

 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas
 

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

I’M NOT THE ONLY ONE NOTICING

 

“I only hope the authorities notice!”  

The collapse of volatility, which is ongoing & most definitely planned by the 

central bank manipulators, hasn’t gone unnoticed. Yesterday on ZH the 

following article, linked directly below.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-28/what-behind-crash-fx-vol-and-

when-will-it-finally-end

Quite a crash, but born out by the data in the 20 Day Range MA’s I keep 

track of and publish each Sunday, on the blog updates. We’ve known for a 

while that the 3 most volatile FX pairs have slowed down to a crawl, and 

more importantly what to do about it … which is, not trade them unless the 

appropriate numbers are there. And lately, they’ve been MIA, although

GBPJPY did have two decent days this week due to the “Brexit” lottery 

FUBAR, thank you very much Pols.

WTI Crude Oil is a little bit more troublesome, cuz I think it still has a ways 

to go before bottoming … the ranges just aren’t there, and unless today sees 

some big whopper of a range later on, the 20 Day Range MA is gonna go lower 

on Sunday again … and lo & behold, what we see more times than not is the 

infamous “Flying Wedge of Death” {FWD] show its ugly head and infect the 

market … and in a market that is slowing down, you simply aren’t gonna get 

the extended ranges necessary to either recover from a loss, or make any 

significant profit from a position that runs … what you get are “false 

positives” and/or chop.

Today’s action very troublesome in oil for another reason … the call spreads 

are too far apart to offer any kind of protection on a position … either we 

enter a position where the market is too far under a floor, or the alternative is 

the floor is too far away … and the way oil is bouncing around like a lab rat 

on crack, I’m not willing to risk 70 cents to make far less than that … and 

these were the options presented to us today in oil. NADEX needs to do a 

better job pricing their call spreads, not just in oil, but in a whole host of 

markets where they are to “Hoover Dam” wide to be of any use … “yea, good 

luck with that”.

Now, oil is starting to get close to the 56.00 floor on one of the call spreads, but 

with a $2 range, where does it go with 3 hours to expiration? … and even then, 

you’re paying a hefty 20 cent premium, so even if you get a corrective move 

higher, premiums will evaporate in your face … and for that risk, you end up 

making very little in return … by the same token, do you sell it now that it’s 

gone “Thelma & Louise” to the tune of $2 in 50 minutes? … and what do you 

expect the range to do? … on a pop back where do you puke? So, not very 

many decent options to explore in oil today.

FX pairs? … talk to me when the 20 Day Range MA’s go higher … until then, 

unless the dealers make an honest market, you’ll be a loser on the “volatility 

call spread strategy” … right now, you got better odds with a slot machine.

We’ll see what Monday brings … blog update Sunday … until then mi amigos 

… Onward & Upward!!

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas
 

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

THE MARKET MEAT GRINDER

 

“You don’t always get what you want!”  

Well, what can you say really about any of these markets today? … “start off 

with not much, cuz outside of some “Brexit” lottery talk, that saw Cable act 

psychotically like it’s on crack, and thus once again kill traders of all stripes, 

nothing else did much of anything except chop … EURJPY a complete basket 

case of a market, and WTI Crude Oil spending most of the day in suicidal mode, 

jumping up/down 50 - 70 cents per barrel in minutes, without going anywhere 

… if you were looking for some kind of trend to make you money, you were 

simply out of luck”.

FX pairs have gotten to the point, where they need to start exhibiting 

consistent daily volatility, and not just “one & done” like GBPJPY today 

… cuz what’s gonna happen is that for every day like today, you get 3 or 4 

of complete shit in terms of range, and if you’re playing the “volatility call 

spread strategy”, you’re going to end up getting ground down into a pulp.

WTI crude oil for its part, seems to be caught in a range of 52 - 57 on the 

front month, and as today’s action shows, there is no mercy for those trapped 

at bottoms and tops, cuz this thing roars away at the speed of light and the 

next thing you know stops are being hit off on the other side … “I’m more 

than a little surprised crude today had no downside action whatsoever, given 

Trump’s “price is too high” tweet yesterday … all we saw was panic selling after 

rallies, but we saw no action below yesterday’s close the entire day … and given 

the nature of the quickness and scope of the decline, I’m not gonna buy rallies in 

crude hoping for more … while I’m somewhat constructive on oil’s price, it’s not 

gonna go galloping away to the upside, if and until China & the U.S. come to 

some sort of trade deal … otherwise, I’ll wait for pullbacks, and we saw none of 

that today”.

I watched oil closely all day, but quite frankly off of every single retreat in 

price came an almost immediate rally in price that went straight up … this 

happened 8 times today … yea, 8 … all inside a small range that barely saw 

$1 per barrel for the entire day … this in a market that currently has a $1.70, 

20 Day Range MA … on track to go lower this week as well unless things 

heat up some. If this isn’t the infamous “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] 

killing traders, I don’t know what is!

So, we bide our time and wait for what we want in a trade, and it didn’t 

happen today … onto tomorrow … until then mi amigos 

… Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas
 

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

ONE BIG PILE OF YOU KNOW WHAT

 

“What markets look like in nature!”  

“Oy” … and it just goes downhill from there. This is as dead a day as you’ll see, 

cuz we’re waiting the entire day for idiotic FED minutes that come at 2 PM 

EST … another wasted day on bullshit … welcome to the new paradigm of 

central bank control over everything.

Except at the open of the NYSE, oil explodes, which has me wondering how in 

the hell oil can rally in the face of a global depression? … sure, they say they’re 

cutting production … sure, right I’m gonna just trust these asshats … and yes, 

China has turned on the money spigots this last month to the tune of trillions 

of Yuan … somebody tell me how that relates to stronger oil demand? … and 

just like that, oil rallies straight up $2 per barrel in 1 ½ hours … no wonder 

this complex is called the “widow maker”. And quite frankly, while everything 

else sits and waits for FED minutes, how does oil give the rest of the markets 

the middle finger and skyrocket? … “if I didn’t know better, I’d say there’s 

plenty of bullshit going around in oil for everybody, and somebody knows 

somethin’ the rest of us don’t! … man, I didn’t see this rally coming at all, cuz 

with only a half hour from FED minutes to call spread expiration, I didn’t 

expect anything of substance to take place … it didn’t cost me, but it sure as 

hell surprised me”! There was an algo buy signal, but I didn’t see it … this is 

a move that we should have captured at least some of and profited. 

Today is one of those days where I make a “Command Decision” … and this is 

how it’s gonna shake out from here going forward … at night from the 

NADEX open, I’ll make my “volatility call spread strategy” recommendations 

for the 3 most volatile FX pairs, which are GBPJPY, GBPUSD, & EURJPY 

respectively, and see if there are any trades to make based on volatility. When 

we get to the European mid morning [around 6 AM New York time], I’ll be 

looking at algorithm signals in WTI Crude Oil for the day utilizing a NADEX 

call spread … and that’s it! Cuz quite frankly, I’ve been spreading myself too 

thin via NADEX, and today sees me miss a great trade cuz I’m attempting to 

watch everything. So, going forward, that’s how it’s gonna be … oil trading 

here we come … “this place ain’t called traderzoocrude for nothing’!

Other than that, nothing really to say, except wait until tomorrow 

… hopefully something happens from FED minutes, but I wouldn’t count 

on it. We’ll see.

Have a great day everybody!
 

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

THE ILLUSION OF FINANCIAL MARKETS

 

“Running bank trading desks 24/7!”  

Welcome to the Monday version of the latest “shitshow circus”, where nothing 

moves unless there’s a reason for it to move, and that reason given emphasis 

by Pols & Apparatchiks … of course, if their lips are moving they’re lying 

… we all know and understand this … the game isn’t to speak the truth, the 

game is to get markets to move on bullshit that can be taken advantage of and 

profit from as many times as possible … and in today’s markets, big money 

isn’t gonna move unless they feel reasonably assured they aren’t gonna get 

hung out to dry … so, no news, no volume, no liquidity, and markets sit.

As I pointed out yesterday, there isn’t a market out there where its 20 Day 

Range MA is sloping higher … they are ALL pointing lower, meaning volatility 

is getting wrung out of the towel by the banks … probably got some more to go 

before people wave the white flag and give up, and again I’m posting the  

“Brexit” schedule of events directly below … on and around these dates 

there’s likely gonna be fireworks.

 

click to enlarge

GBPJPY downright pitiful today, the third in the last 4 trading days … it’s 

been nothing but melting ice for almost a week … EURJPY slightly better, 

where earlier this morning in early New York there were some small profits to 

be had in either the “volatility call spread strategy” or the “synthetic Christmas 

tree strategy” … at least there was something there, but EURJPY has been 

slow for weeks now, ever since the Yen flash crash on January 3rd.

Oil & the stock indices continue to get wrecked by inaction … the premiums 

here still way too high for any trades … it simply doesn’t make any sense to 

pay for volatility day after day, and then not get it. Monday’s and Friday’s 

being the worst days lately, hopefully tomorrow [Tuesday] sees us move some.

There isn’t anything we can do about the banks manipulations in all of these 

markets … right now, they’re wringing premium volatility out of the 

marketplace … we simply can’t force anything cuz it won’t work … patience 

grasshoppers!

And with that, I’m outta here … until tomorrow mi amigos 
… Onward & Upward!!
 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas
 

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?