LIGHTNING BOLTS & CRICKETS

 

“Markets have turned into hanging parties!”

Where do you begin talking about this day? … first I guess, is the fact major 

FX pairs are beyond hope anymore … seriously, forget volatility here as 

central bank HQ is dialed in, which leads to reversals and the infamous 

“Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] … forget stock indices today, as premium 

erosion sets into the SP500 chop around 2930 … but then there’s oil, where a 

Trump Tweet unleashes a selling panic, thus giving oil a much needed boost 

in the daily range … something that’s been severely lacking these last months.

I looked at both oil and SP500 earlier, and nothing looked good simply cuz 

premiums were too high based on lethargic market action … well, one was 

right, the other went ballistic … “when somebody figures out when Trump is 

gonna Tweet on oil, let me know OK”? And of course, this fits well within what 

I’ve been saying for ages now, “that markets only move when POLS & 

Apparatchiks open their Pie Holes” … today sees that in oil in spades.

Next week sees Asia off the entire week, not returning until May 7 … 10 days 

of “Golden Week” Holiday … so, don’t look for anything to be priced fairly at 

NADEX on the open or until Europe opens about 10 - 11 hours later. Lately, 

their bid/offer spreads have been horrific … only oil priced around 2 cents 

per bbl. is OK, everything else a complete ripoff … you gonna step up and 

pay 10 PIPS to get into GBPJPY? I’m sure as hell not. And until we get close 

to the NYSE open [about 90 minutes], don’t expect the SP500 call spreads to 

be priced well either … last night they were hovering around a full index 

point, which is embarrassing.

It’s bad enough when you have to deal with manipulative market forces 

… it’s worse when you got to pay huge “vig” just to get a position on and 

make a trade. Geesh, I wish they’d get their shit together.

Back Sunday night with a blog update … until then mi amigos 
… Onward & Upward!!
 

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas
 

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

I’M TIRED OF THE FX “COIN FLIP”

 

“You know who you are!”

I grow weary of the NADEX FX “coin flip”, where premiums are high most 

nights and in the morning, intraday volatility sucks and shows zero signs of 

getting significantly better anytime soon, and it’s either a complete loss of 

premium or a small gain … this ain’t a winning formula. If you want to 

continue to trade GBPUSD, GBPJPY, & EURJPY, that’s fine with me, but 

until volatility is substantially higher consistently, I don’t see the advantage 

to us in this area … “hell, I can flip a coin and make the decision process just 

as easy, so why bother with them”?

Instead, tonight I’ll be looking at WTI Crude Oil & the Stock Indices, and 

again at the European open … it’s the only place where bid/offer spreads are 

anywhere near reasonable, combined with the fact premium levels in these 

two markets have FINALLY come down significantly … ‘bout frickin’ time 

… nonetheless, the way they are priced now, even slow days can make us 

money. So, back to oil, and most likely the SP500.

Until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!
 

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

IT’S A RIGGED JOKE

 

“When there’s no volatility and the trading platform is rigged!”

Another pitiful day, with ranges very low in oil, GBPUSD, & GBPJPY 

… given the premiums last night, it’s nothing but losses over 20 hours, no 

matter what the market does or doesn’t do … really just pathetic.

Just as pathetic is NADEX, with 4 PIP bid/offer spreads in GBPJPY, so even 
if you wanted in, you’re paying an arm & a leg just to get a position 
… seriously, when I see this, I just move on to something else, cuz there’s no 
way I’m paying 10 PIPS to trade volatility in GBPJPY … and anybody that 
does, especially in this low VIX environment is nuts. And it’s like every day & 
night is a replay of the same bullshit the day before … and in oil, it’s the same 
thing, with another week playing out to another drop in the 20 Day Range 
MA, unless things turn around quickly, and I don’t see that. 
 

This is depressing.

Until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

 

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

FOR A SECOND THERE

 

“There was a time this A.M., when everything looked dead & hopeless!”

On the one hand, it would have been nice to capture something today … on 

the other, it looked early like markets would never move again. Finally, the 

USD catches a strong bid and SHTF … I’ll take that as good news and move 

on from there.

Last night greatly pissed me off to no end, as the NADEX market maker in 
GBPJPY had 4 PIP bid/offer spreads on each side of the call spreads … throw 
in 1 PIP on each for RT commissions, and it’s a cost of doing business of 
10 PIPS to get into a position … seriously, what the hell is wrong with you 
guys, expecting anybody in their right mind to pay that? Does anybody pay a 
10 PIP spread to trade GBPJPY at any offshore brokerage house? … well, if 
they do, they’re stone cold nuts!

Not much better in Cable, which came in at 6, to get into a position … sure, 

hindsight is great after the day is over and you’ve seen the small moves 

… does anybody pay 6 PIPS to trade Cable?

Meanwhile, oil plugs along with another sub $1 range, as the 20 Day Range 

MA just goes lower and lower every week … they’ve brought down the 

premiums some, but not enough … we simply need to see a rise in the range 

MA to become interested again in oil, otherwise it’s a losing proposition.

Hopefully tonight is a different story with bid/offer spreads … until tomorrow 
mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!
 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas
 

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

SUNDAY UPDATE: CURRENT MOOD SAYS IT ALL

 

“Financial markets “mood” metaphorically summed up perfectly!”

VIX in everything pointed lower after last week’s dismal trading conditions. 

Directly below, this week’s 20 Day Range MA’s. 

 

click on any chart to enlarge

 

 

 

Oil, Cable, GBPJPY all lower … where does this crap end? Well, it won’t be 

tomorrow, cuz only FX is open and expect it to be like Friday … dull and 

uneventful. I’ll post tomorrow a brief blog … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!
 

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

DEATH BY DESIGN

 

“Barely, thanks for asking!”

Volatility so low, you can hardly measure it … and even with soft premiums in 

the Cable call spreads, there isn’t any money to be made cuz the market won’t 

move … hopefully, after Easter is over and we get into next week things change 

… my goodness, they can’t get any worse.

Nothing really to report, cuz it’s the same conditions we’ve suffered through 
for over 2 weeks … so onto next week and forget about this crap like a bad 
dream. Blog update Sunday night.
 

Until Sunday mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great Easter weekend Holiday everybody!

-vegas
 

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

ANOTHER GUT PUNCH TYPE OF DAY

 

“When your trading day is worse than his day selling shoes!”

Think it can’t get worse? … well, there’s this week isn’t there? … and even 

with very soft call spread premiums last night, they still can’t produce any 

profit, simply cuz there is no market movement … hell, after 20+ hours of 

trading GBPJPY has a 46 PIP range … if you paid 49 at last night’s open, 

there isn’t any way your up money at any point in the day from where you 

bought it … it’s just “Evaporation City”.

WTI crude oil not much better, where it’s range is well less than $1 for the 

day … we’ve been here before this week and last, and don’t expect tomorrow 

to be any better. For FX, Friday is open, but nothing else is for “Good Friday” 

… ditto for Monday … so nothing really gets back to normal until Tuesday. 

Premiums are gonna have to be “giveaway” tonight to get me in, cuz I don’t 

think tomorrow will yield anything at all in terms of range … in fact, probably 

worse than today. 

There’s nothing we can do about it folks … it is what it is … volatility is
scraping the bottom of the river, and I can’t honestly ever remember trading 
conditions being this bad in the course of my career … sure, there’s been 
some slow times, but this is ridiculous. We’ll see what happens.

Until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!
 

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

MARKETS ARE QUIET CUZ NOBODY HAS A CLUE

 

“Motivation … markets could use some!”

What with the POLS in Britain on the sidelines until Easter is over, and next 

week sees Japan on Holiday for the week for “Golden Week”, it’s pretty much 

a complete snoozefest for the foreseeable future. “We need some volatility 

… we ain’t gettin’ any volatility … and in that kind of environment, the call 

spreads premiums will eat you up if you decide to trade them”.

Premiums at the open last night were moderately over priced, no surprise 
here, as they often are, but with zero volatility, it’s a one way ticket to 
premium evaporation in price as the minutes and hours tick by … what you 
might gain on one side, you lose more on the other … and back & forth it 
goes, with the turns in price causing the worst price erosion in the call 
spreads. You just can’t win without some kind of volatility.

WTI crude oil for its part, dead in the water just drifting along. Nothing to 

see here until the 20 Day Range MA starts to recover, and so far we haven’t 

seen that at all … for the last 3 weeks, stuck at $1.22 per barrel … just as a 

reminder, it was at the first week in January when it peaked at $2.60 per 

barrel … that’s a greater than 50% loss of volatility in only 12 weeks 

… amazing to watch the manipulators take away the punch bowl isn’t it?

So, what are you supposed to do here? … I feel like the 2 Bobs in 
“Office Space”, asking the question to employees to keep their jobs … and 
I’m putting the question to the markets, but they don’t seem to care. In the 
meantime, nobody really has a clue what’s going on or where we go next 
… nobody.

Until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!
 

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?