THE DARK HOURS IN OIL TRADING

“Can’t a person just take a little oil home without getting raped!?”

The answer of course, is NO! … I’m sure nobody got long oil first before the

torpedo attacks, did they? … Nah, honest markets all the way around! … good

grief, what a “shitshow circus” in the dark hours after New York closes for the

day.

And with that, what’s left for today on the order books anybody wants to tackle?

… try NADA, and a visit from Mr. Jack Squat. And so, we find ourselves in a very

tight range since the attack, simply cuz nobody wants anything to do with this

market going into the weekend. Nothing else really to say, cuz that’s it!

Until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

THE BEAR RESTS

 

“Or, they can just rip your face off!”

Well, a welcome respite from rampant selling in oil today [so far] … bears need 

rest too … bid/offer spreads at Coinexx, again today, not very good considering 

there isn’t Mr. Jack Squat going on … they were at 3 earlier, then NY opened and 

they blew out some … now around 4 … seriously makes me want to hit somebody 

when I see shit like this.

Quite frankly, the oil trade faces a serious problem when it comes to CFD’s … the 

places that have reasonable spreads don’t accept U.S. clients and their margins 

are significantly higher … those that do accept U.S. clients have issues with 

scumbag LP’s who jack spreads around, but offer much more favorable margins 

for positions … I thought Coinexx would be a good solution, but they’ve shown 

over the last week or so that their LP’s are every bit the scumbags you see at 

Turnkey … the only other solution is to trade futures, where the emini in oil is 500 

barrels and the spread is 2.5 cents … add commissions and U.S. fees, and you’re 

a hair below 3 cents for a net cost … but, if you do that, you generate a 1099 from 

the brokerage house if you’re a U.S. citizen.

So, either live with the dipshits at Coinexx to trade oil, and accept the fact there 

will be days where you can’t trade cuz their LP’s are shit for brains, or open a 

futures account and trade the emini … if you do the latter, check out Investors 

Europe in Gibraltar [ https://www.investorseurope.com ]… you can open an 

account there if you’re a U.S. citizen, and you won’t generate a 1099 … their 

default trading platform is “Rock Trader Pro”, which is OK, but somewhat more 

complicated than either MT4 or MT5, but it’s a good platform … note, though, that 

on the demo platform all futures for energies are delayed by 15 minutes cuz of the 

CME … in any event, it’s a very good place to trade. If you want to stay in the U.S. 

for futures [can’t for the life of me understand why], AMP futures is a good choice.

So, after scanning the complete landscape for oil, there are very few good options 

available to U.S, citizens who want to trade CFD’s, thank you very much nanny 

government & the CME, who have combined forces to make life difficult for those 

who choose to trade … so what else is new?

Until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

 

UGHH! … BUT AT LEAST WE TURNED A PROFIT

 

“Way to go Butch … I got stuck in EURJPY all frickin’ night!”  

Anybody want to enlighten me on what’s wrong with this picture? … “we’re in 

a EURJPY volatility call spread at 39 … 39! … with 1) PMI’s out of Europe, 

2) NFP report out in the U.S. later, and 3) we’re in a frickin’ cross, meaning all 

it has to do is literally fart, and the cross moves … and yet, we end up with profit 

crumbs, cuz the “Hoover Dam” thing won’t move”!

Maybe it moves later, I dunno, but what I do know is that with one side [our 

short side] NOT having an offer and effectively at the ceiling, our profit side is 

at severe risk with any move lower, no matter how slight … and in this bucket 

of slop, I ain’t fooling around with it on a Friday, that looks like it wants to lay 

down and die. Here later, it did rally some, but I don’t care … cuz the problem 

is there’s nothing on the other side if it decides to tapioca.

Last night near the open, signals service subscribers got long EURJPY call 

spreads. Directly below the opening trade, where we are long the volatility 

spread @39.

 

click to enlarge

This was like pouring molasses in sub zero weather … slow … very slow. In 

the end, though, we ended up making a few PIPS, and the liquidation ticket 

below shows no offer on the buy side. So, I simply assume for now, we’re out 

at 60 at expiration later this afternoon.

 

We also had a situation last night where GBPJPY was at its lowest opening in 

a good long while, opening at 57 … “well, as I said yesterday, GBPJPY is rolling 

over in its 20 Day Range MA, and can be counted on to put in some lower than 

expected ranges … on the other hand, EURJPY is already there scraping the 

bottom of the barrel! … and yes, PIPS matter when positioning these Nadex call 

spreads … overpay and you will regret it”.

The new addition call spreads in gold, as I write and now post NFP, as well as 

the ones from the open last night don’t offer any value … simply put, they are 

vastly overvalued for current volatility, and almost a sure bet to evaporate in 

front of your eyes as the minutes tick by and gold does Mr. Jack Squat … I’m 

still looking at the binaries if gold can drop into sell stops, which would give us 

a great entry point for profit … dunno if we’ll see it, but who knows on a 

Friday … it’s still a long day ahead of us.

Quite frankly, both of the FX crosses are exhibiting really pathetic trading 

action this week … they’ve gone from “bat shit crazy” to “sleepy time”, and are 

trading like gold, which is a pathetic trading market in its own right at 

present … especially EURJPY, which acts like its stuck in deep mud. Gold for 

its part mired in muck as well, so no further trades today.

Blog update this weekend on Sunday … I’m outta here … until Sunday mi 

amigos … Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

OVERPAYING FOR VOLATILITY

 

“So says Volatility!”  

We opened last night with sky high premiums in GBPJPY … this after both 

longs & shorts got the “tree shaken” and forced out after the “Brexit” vote 

… today sees more political maneuvering with a government “no confidence” 

vote scheduled within about a half hour from expiration … margin of error 

for PM May is 13 votes … if she loses she’s gone, but consensus is she survives 

along party lines [Tory & DUP from Ireland] … and so, pricing for volatility 

while the clown show continues, didn’t seem like a very good idea last night, 

notwithstanding the blowout “shitshow circus” the last 2 hours of the New 

York trading day.

To make matters worse, even though volatility has collapsed here recently in 

stock indices & crude oil, they’re still priced for action when none is present 

and accounted for by any stretch … these are also awfully overpriced versus 

their respective 20 Day Range MA’s, which non coincidentally are coming 

down … so, there isn’t a lot out there right now that makes sense.

Which brings me right back to GBPJPY, where the equal “floor & ceiling”  

strikes were priced at 90 PIPS … far above the threshold I have written about 

in the tutorial … you buy this, and what you’ve done is place yourself 

HIGHER on the sloping probability normal distribution curve, exactly where 

you don’t want to be, cuz it makes your trade a coin flip … could profit, but 

just as likely NOT to profit … who the hell wants that? … and it places you 

into trading purgatory.

Cuz as today’s trading shows, when the premiums start to melt cuz Europe 

has done Mr. Jack Squat, you need a lot of movement just to get back to break 

even … and if you only get a proportion of that, as soon as the market stops 

moving, premiums go down quickly. Throw into the mix “event risk”, and as 

the event approaches to expiration, you’re faced with the proverbial coin flip 

again … this isn’t a place I want to be.

Really nothing to see here today, as markets across the board are DEAD 

… “it’s been a long time since I’ve seen markets go from “ape shit” to “no shit” 

so quickly”. Those who overpaid for volatility today suffered the greatest. 

Onto tomorrow, where rumors galore ought to be floating around after 

today’s U.K. no confidence vote is over. What a frickin’ mess they’ve dug 

themselves into.

I’m outta here … until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!
 

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

WHEN THE AIR GOES OUT OF THE BALLOON

 

“What the game looks like when volatility decides to leave!”  

Mostly a completely dead Friday, except anything Cable related, as the  

“shitshow circus” known as GBPUSD, currently in its 29th consecutive month 

of “feed the mistress funds” via “Brexit” rumors, goes into full retard mode 

right before the weeknd … “somewhere, you just know a buxom young lass will 

walk into a Mercedes dealership and pay cash for a pretty red one”.

Which is why dear amigos, 1) I absolutely love NADEX derivative products, 

especially “Call Spreads”, and 2) no matter where VIX is in any market or all 

markets, the “pop & drop” signature characteristics of the “Dragon Trade”, 

a/k/a GBPJPY, pretty much assures something happening somewhere in the 

trade during the trading day, that allows a low risk trade to make money 

… today no exception, as Cable screams higher 100 PIPS in 2 minutes on more 

“Brexit” hopium & bullshit.

About three or four years ago, I published a piece about what market pairs 

will ALWAYS allow you to make money, simply cuz the volatility in them made 

it “Hoover Dam” near impossible for the market to sit … at that time, the 

markets were GBPNZD & GBPAUD … I excluded GBPJPY, for the simple 

reason Yen has a tendency to sit for long periods and do Mr. Jack Squat 

… “well now, we got “Brexit”, and oh how the world changes quickly!” …  and 

since all of this was well before NADEX Call Spreads, the only thing you could 

do was try and find an offshore brokerage house that 1) wasn’t a scam, and 

2) had a relatively low spread that made trading them a possibility … that led 

me to ASSETS FX [Finland], where since then they’ve decided any and all U.S. 

accounts are verboten.

NADEX doesn’t support either GBPNZD or GBPAUD, but that doesn’t 

matter cuz we now have the ability, which wasn’t there before, to drastically 

cut risk … even if potential profits from GBPJPY are somewhat lower, it 

doesn’t matter cuz are potential gains are made higher by cutting risk 

exposure.

My point here is simple: “we now have the best of both worlds, which is 

consistently high [relative to other markets] daily volatility, combined with 

cutting risk exposure to acceptable levels in GBPJPY … overall, through thick 

and thin, it will outperform every other market on the board hands down … cuz 

I got news for the stock indices traders and oil traders, and that news is that 

those markets go “boom & bust” quite often … sure, if VIX stayed high all the 

time, they are great … unfortunately, they don’t, and both suffer long periods 

where Mr. Jack Squat is in full control … check out again the 2018 20 Day 

Range MA’s in both, and tell me what you do for the months when both are 

dead? … this doesn’t happen in GBPJPY, and with the “Brexit” bullshit far 

from over, and looking everyday like the idiotic Pols will stretch this puppy into 

the future as far as the eye can see, the uncertainty & chaos in this pair will be 

with us for a good long while at a minimum … that spells even higher relative 

volatility versus historical norms well into the future … it’s like trading Soybeans 

in late Spring, and everyday there’s drought conditions & rumors of no rain, and 

the crop is gonna get destroyed”! As a trader, you couldn’t ask [nor get] for 

anything better … well guess what? … we got it.

Which is why GBPJPY is easily my favorite market on NADEX, and the 

market I check first from the open every night … yes, other markets come and 

go and present us with favorable conditions & trades, as recent December 

trades showed in RUT2000 & WTI Crude Oil … and if they’re there, we’ll 

take ‘em! … they come just as quickly as they go … but over time, nothing 

will beat GBPJPY on a consistent basis … nothing.

It’s unfortunate today’s price explosion in Cable came when it did … pricing 

was OK, but “spacing” wasn’t … “spacing”? … “yes, the difference between 

where the overlapping call spread is trading, and where it has to go to make up 

the premium that is built into the pricing … if it has to travel too far to get to that 

price, in what I consider too short of a time frame that has a high probability of 

success, then it isn’t a good trade, no matter how low the pricing is … it isn’t 

gonna work”. And the call spread pairs put out around 8 AM EST, with new 

bands for floors & ceilings weren’t much better.

Another reason I like the three [3] volatile FX pairs [choose from GBPJPY, 

GBPUSD, and/or EURJPY for your own trading account if you so desire], is 

that they start the week at 6 PM EST on Sunday night, giving us a full 5 day 

week … Crude oil, stock indices, and others [excluding other FX] start the 

week at 3 AM EST on Monday morning, losing all of the Monday Asian 

session and a tiny bit of the pre-European open … some days it doesn’t 

matter, but for too many days it does.

This week, we’ve seen the air come out of the volatility balloons in other 

markets, even though price premiums are still high … that makes these 

markets even tougher to trade, cuz you aren’t gonna get the moves necessary 

to make up for the premiums you pay for volatility and still get a profit 

… meanwhile, you still got the risk, and watching premiums evaporate when 

the market doesn’t move is torture … the vast majority of the time, this isn’t 

going to happen in those 3 FX pairs.

Without that 2 minute “Brexit” rumor that turned trading into a complete 

stop hunt and “shitshow circus” for 100 PIPS, we’d be lucky to have a 60 PIP 

range today in GBPJPY. I don’t have a clue what the rest of New York 

trading has in store for our markets, but pricing and spacing doesn’t look 

very good at the moment … “I just don’t see anything with enough potential 

reward for risk … so, I’m outta here early today … be back Sunday night". 

No trades recommended today in the signals service for subscribers.

Sunday night sees the release of the tutorial on “NADEX Call Spreads” 

… anybody has any questions / comments, just drop me a line via email … I 

think all of my readers will learn something from my insights, and at the very 

least pinpoint great trading strategies maybe they hadn’t given much thought 

towards.

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas
 

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

 IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?