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Showing posts with label Brent - WTI oil spread. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brent - WTI oil spread. Show all posts

Monday, December 16, 2019

AND SUDDENLY, CRYPTO & OIL HAVE DIED

“I lay the blame entirely upon crypto & crude oil!”

WTF is this? … not that many minutes to the New York close and crude oil has a
58 cent ragne? … BTC about $120, but I haven’t seen it move $2 in the last 5
hours … seriously, whoa! … and then towards the end of the day BTC gets
whacked … well, what good does it do now, the day’s about over?

Nothing you can do when nobody wants to come out and play … good grief is this
pathetic.

For those that read my blog yesterday, I showed some Brent / WTI spread charts.
Directly below, the place to go to get some good charts for free.


Directly below, the spread chart, one day behind, from the above link. It’s a good
looking chart dynamic, better than the one I had yesterday in the blog update.

click on chart to enlarge

Still disgusted with PRIMEXBT, and the bullshit shenanigans their crude oil LP’s
are pulling … and I’ve let them know it in spades … no response back from them
yet, which is telling, but ignoring problems is what brokerage houses do, and
why they piss people off with a tenacity that rivals the DMV.

As I said yesterday, the only place I know of where you can trade the Brent-WTI
spread and not pay “vig” in CFD’s is FX CHOICE … one word of caution from the
chart above, though, and that is that it tracks futures, right up to expiration,
whereas CFD’s don’t expire … some of the spikes on the Brent-WTI chart aren’t
going to be reflected in CFD prices, cuz CFD’s go to the next expiration quite fast
in the trading cycle, and it’s only the front month expiring contract that sees the
spike up/down in the chart above … other than that, though, the spread will move
and lends itself to be traded, where you can at FX CHOICE in 10 barrel increments
… until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas



Sunday, December 15, 2019

SUNDAY UPDATE: NEW OPPORTUNITIES IN CRUDE OIL!

“Butch gets it … too bad brokerage houses don’t!”

First, let’s get the stats out of the way for the upcoming week … directly below
the 20 Day Range MA for WTI Crude Oil.

Click on ANY chart to enlarge

Directly below, the Dollar crypto pairs 20 Day Range MA’s for the upcoming
week.






Directly below, the BTC crosses 20 Day Range MA’s for the upcoming week.





I said the other day, that on today’s blog post I would compare the oil CFD’s of
PRIMEXBT & FX CHOICE, and compare the two … so let’s do this!

SIZE OF CFD
PRIMEXBT: 100 barrel increments only, up to max position limit of 7500 barrels.
FX CHOICE: 10 barrel increments, no MAX.

MARGINS OF OIL CFD
PRIMEXBT: 0 - 300 BARRELS 100X [1%], 300 - 1,000 BARRELS 50X [2%],
1,000 - 5,000 BARRELS 20X [5%], 5,000 - 7,500 BARRELS 10X [10%].
FX CHOICE: 33.3X [3%] ON ALL SIZE

ROLLOVER “VIG”
PRIMEXBT: approximately 1 cent per barrel, long or short per day.
FX CHOICE: NO VIG!

ROUND TURN COMMISSIONS
PRIMEXBT: 0.02% of the notional value per barrel. At current prices, WTI =
approximately 1.2 cents per barrel, and for BRENT = approximately 1.3 cents
per barrel.
FX CHOICE: NO COMMISSIONS

BID / OFFER SPREAD
PRIMEXBT: 1.2 - 2.3 CENTS PER BARREL.
FX CHOICE: 90%+ of the time 3 cents per barrel, 10% of the time 4 cents per
barrel.

EASE OF OPENING ACCOUNT TO TRADE
PRIMEXBT: NO KYC, USE BITCOIN
FX CHOICE: Government ID only, fund with Bitcoin

TRADING PLATFORMS
PRIMEXBT: PROPRIETARY PLATFORM
FX CHOICE: MT4

Up until the middle of last week, PRIMEXBT clearly had the better trading option
for their oil CFD’s … then mid week, for some unknown reason, their oil spreads
ballooned out by almost a penny per barrel, the WTI going from 1.2 cents per
barrel to 1.8 - 2.3 cents per barrel … and of course, much to my letting them have
it for greedy LP’s, PRIMEXBT responded in the usual way, which is “we don’t
have any control over spreads” … during that time, FX CHOICE spreads
remained stable at 3 cents.

The clear area where FX CHOICE has a better tradeable CFD is if you’re interested
in positioning oil … there is no vig with the FX CHOICE CFD, so it can be carried
through rollover with no charge … in addition, it sets up and allows those who
wish to position WTI versus Brent crude oil trades & positions without penalty
… granted, you’d have to “leg” into each side separately, and there would be
3 cents on each side to deal with, but the point is the trade would be definitely
viable to consider, especially when there’s no penalty of vig to consider … over
time, this spread has been quite volatile … directly below in successive order,
the 5 YR., 1 YR,. 6 MOS., & 1 Month chart in BRENT - WTI oil spread.





So, those looking to position oil, without the worry of what happens on some
spike cuz SHTF somewhere on the geopolitical map, this spread makes sense to
trade, and the only place that I know of where there’s no “vig” on rollover each
day, is at FX CHOICE … and there’s no commissions, so the cost to trade the
spread is 6 cents … leg into it properly, and you can carry the position profitably
at first, and then monitor the position … and unlike a lot of places [hello Turnkey
& Coinexx], there’s usually no extra spread for BRENT, so it’s 3 cents a side. 

Bottom line is this: trade this spread at the edges, based on historical data,
legging into the spread and taking it overnight and/or the weekend when in a
profitable position … like I said, the spread offers protection against spikes or
shocks to the oil market, and with no “vig” it’s attractive to position trade it. You
can’t do this at PRIMEXBT, cuz they’re gonna beat you to death with “VIG” every
day. So, it’s out there oil traders … take the time to get to know the spread!

FX CHOICE won’t allow me to do the PAMM / MAM and be an affiliate and collect
rebate commissions … so I made the choice to do the PAMM / MAM for the
DOW30 cuz they have the best conditions for trading that stock index … but what
if you open an FX CHOICE ACCOUNT TO TRADE OIL? … some days PRIMEXBT
has slightly better trading conditions , and as we’ve found out this last week,
sometimes they don’t … can you get the “Traders Course” [TC] for free by
opening an FX CHOICE ACCOUNT just to trade oil, and maybe the Brent / WTI
spread? … No … but if you open an FX CHOICE ACCOUNT & join the
PAMM / MAM, and fund it with at least $200, yes I’ll send you the TC for free
… Happy Holidays!

Over the upcoming Christmas & New Years Holiday, I’m going to be doing some
analytical work on the BRENT / WTI oil spread, and more than likely probably
position trade it come 2020 at some point … so positioning the Brent / WTI oil
spread will join the DOW30 in the PAMM / MAM come the new year.

Onto the new week, we’ll see what it brings to the table … until tomorrow mi
amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!

-vegas