“Oh Oracle of all knowledge! … what does Britain do today!?”
Put today squarely in the category of, “pick the worst possible outcome for the
people of Britain, and Pols will even FUBAR that!” … today, of course, a
political & financial “D-Day” in British Parliament over the “shitshow circus”
of “Brexit”. In other words, a great day to be on the sidelines as Britain proves
yet again why they lost their empire.
Last night, premiums simply too high [not a surprise] to recommend a
position for service signals subscribers … “we’re here to make money, not
simply trade … we get no participatory “ribbons” to put on the refrigerator
if/when I do “stupid shit”, and over paying for trading action is a sure fire way of
getting one” … and just as a side note, last night on ZH I read one of the
strangest articles I’ve ever seen there, where it could have been titled, “Hey,
look at me … I’m an idiot”, on the perils of trading as somehow gambling and
the sins inherent in the vice. In case you missed it, the link directly below:
who-just-blew-it
Today presents us with a problem in logistics … logistics? … yup logistics, in
the sense that NADEX CALL SPREADS close & settle exactly at 3 PM EST,
and the vote in British Parliament supposedly will come between 19:00 - 21:00
GMT, which is 2 PM - 4 PM EST … “OK, but when is the last time Pols ever
kept track of time and did shit on schedule? … so, there’s real risk here of NO
TIME FOR ANY POSITION TO WORK … cuz IMHO, shit like this ALWAYS
overruns time, simply cuz blowhard Pols will refuse to STFU and sit down
when they are supposed to cuz they ALWAYS use media to pander to their
base … so, who will get airtime? … the ones who scream the loudest, talk the
longest, and throw red meat to their base … outside of “virtue signaling”,
WTF are Pols good for?
In reality, that leaves any position very little time to make money … and just
cuz it might spike up/down 100+ PIPS in seconds after a vote, doesn’t = profits
unless the move stays there! … some kind of mystery spike that gets faded in
microseconds isn’t gonna help us, and would only hurt a position, cuz the
market would interpret that as a “false flag” and evaporate premium … and
quite frankly, even “When” not “If”, Pols fuck everything up it isn’t like
everybody doesn’t know that already, so where’s the surprise? Cable has been
beaten up straight for about a year now … is there anybody in the world who
is gonna be shocked when May gets defeated today? … me thinks not … so in
my book this could be a “buy the rumor sell the fact” perfect storm for traders
… not predictin’, just sayin’ … and it looks very much to me, with all the
uncertainty of “gee, what happens now?”, that the real volatility comes starting
tomorrow when trial balloons start getting floated in the press, to see what hair
brained ideas can stick to the proverbial wall cuz none of them have a fucking
clue as to what to do! … they’re Pols … they bloviate and maneuver for more
power, that’s it … solve problems? … since when?
Later today [I’m writing this in the wee hours of the AM, before some shut
eye], I’ll take a look at the 8AM EST, new batch of GBPJPY Call Spreads, and
see if there is anything that makes sense [I very much doubt it] … but given
the fact the vote is coming very late in the trading day, and bumping right up
against expiration, IF they keep to schedule, what can I expect to happen? Do
premiums evaporate into the end of the day, or stay high? Does in fact, the
vote set off volatility, or does it come later? And lastly, does any move have
legs, or is it just a “mystery tick” to clean stops out, in very thin late New York
trading OR the “Death Valley” session of Australia & New Zealand?
My biggest fear, and I think it’s a very real possibility, is that premiums
collapse quickly after the vote and nothing happens … people are just like
“frozen”, and are asking “now what?”, and very little is moving into the New
York close. In any event, I’ll be keeping a close eye on it … as with anything
we do, it’s simply a function of reward / risk and the price we pay for
volatility, and where things are priced on tomorrow’s open [6PM EST today].
Given how the Brits are positioning this, and given the limitations imposed on
us, there’s no way you can take any position in this, no matter what you pay,
cuz we simply have no definite clue as to when the vote takes place and how
much time the market has before expiration … we simply don’t know, but we
do know it isn’t very much time at all, if any. So, I’m posting early today cuz
there isn’t anything for us to do, thank you very much Brits! Be back tonight
looking at trades for tomorrow.
So, let’s see how bad they can screw this thing up … I’m outta here … until
tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!
Have a great day everybody!
-vegas
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