SUNDAY UPDATE: WHEN OIL ROARS, IT ROARS!

“All you need to know to understand crude oil!”

The stage is being set for a somewhat volatile summer in crude oil … the

back & forth over supply fears versus global oil demand weakening, is

showing no signs of letting up … with the collapse of the bogus China trade

deal, and OPEC+ meeting coming up, I don’t see any let up in the pace of

crude oil volatility. I only hope it can stay manageable during trading hours,

and the bid/offer spread can stay decent and not blow up.

Directly below, the 20 Day Range MA for WTI crude oil.

click on chart to enlarge

We’ve seen a good increase over these last weeks, and this week is probably

a dime to 15 cents higher than otherwise would be, if not for last Thursday’s

$4+ blowout range … still, anything over $1.50 is good for trading.

Tomorrow sees the new crude oil algorithm manual being released, most likely

in the late afternoon EST … onto the week at hand … and as everyone should

know, markets in the U.S. will be closed tomorrow for Memorial Day Holiday.

Until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great rest of your Holiday weekend everybody!

-vegas

ALCOHOL SALES TRIPLE

“Sir, is it true you’re an oil trader!?”

I said yesterday, I’ll have the new and updated oil algorithm on Sunday

… scratch that … with the Memorial Day Weekend here, and markets

basically closed on Monday, I’ll have it ready to post sometime Monday in

the afternoon … and the trades off the algorithm signals will commence

with Tuesday’s trading.

Oil today, started trying to recoup some of the losses from yesterday, and like

I said before, look for the spikes up to catch the spec buy stops, from those

who got short yesterday … and when specs gret short, commercials get long,

and in order to get out of their longs, they need to sell to somebody … bingo,

bango, BOOM! … thank you very much buy stops. And from there, it got

ugly quickly.

Too bad, none of the other markets can trade like oil … well, they’re too

manipulated to put in these kind of moves … of course, all markets used to

trade like oil, before the manipulators got ahold of them for social policy

purposes.

Bid/offer WTI spreads today at Coinexx behaving for the most part … the

first part of the day a solid 3 cents, then when SHTF and oil went

“Thelma & Louise”, the spread widened a penny to 4 … given the trade

action, in the acceptable range.

Blog update Sunday, and I’ll be putting the WTI oil 20 Day Range MA back

up … it’s a good proxy for oil VIX. Monday sees the new oil algorithm

manual. Until Sunday mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great Holiday weekend everybody!

-vegas

CRUDE OIL GOES TAPIOCA

“Crude oil trading today … look Ma, no bottom!”

Well, that escalated quickly to the downside, didn’t it? … traders finally

getting the hint that the China trade deal is/was a scam, and that global

economic growth is headed south … and that means lower crude oil demand.

Add to the list of oil woes, is the fact everybody and their brother was

positioned long crude oil, on stock market hopium and a China trade deal that

was a “slam dunk” … well, Jordan missed the dunk!

It’s been a while since we’ve seen a days range in excess of $3.50+, but here

it is … and that added volatility means higher bid/offer spreads … in today’s

case, I’m not blaming the LP’s for a higher CFD spread, simply cuz the

futures spreads blew out as well … anytime this happens, you can expect

this, simply cuz price is moving so fast in one direction, traders want more

of a premium for the risk … a risk premium that evaporates like a fart in

the wind, and leaves them breathless.

I want to announce today the release, this upcoming weekend on the Sunday

blog update, our newest & most updated crude oil algorithm [WTI / Brent]

… many hours of work & analysis too high to mention … it works great with

either front month futures and/or CFD’s … Cousin It, CoS [Chief of Staff]

Milton Waddums, and myself, use it and love it … it’s clean, simple, and

totally visual in design, and works both on the MT4 & MT5 trading

platforms. The manual will be released in “Download Links”, which will be

over in the right hand column on Sunday, and can either be viewed online or

downloaded.

I’m going to do things a little differently than before with this algorithm, in 2

entirely different aspects than before. First, I’ve created a Coinexx demo

account with $1,000 in it … starting Monday, I’ll trade every signal from

5 AM EST - 2 PM EST, with a 0.10 lot CFD of WTI crude oil [100 barrels]

… the demo account will capture each algorithm trade as it happens, and

after each month, I’ll archive all trades for readers to see from the demo

account “trade history” function … I’m simply going to take each signal,

without thought or analysis, and let the chips fall where they may according to

the algorithm rules. Secondly, the algorithm is free to my readers with the

following stipulation … after you’ve followed it and used it in live trading, I

expect at some point in time, users to donate via crypto back to us what they

think it’s worth … so, I’m doing the reverse of what everybody else in the

industry does, which is charge you for the algorithm first, and then let you

have it … well, we do things a little differently here at Red Glass Capital, LLC

… we let you have it, and leave it up to you at a later date, to give back to us

… if you think it’s a pile of dogshit, then don’t donate … if you like it and

make money with it, which we know you will, then it’s up to you and your

conscious to do the right thing … so, no bitching and whining from the small

accounts crowd about never getting a break in trading … here’s your break,

so take the ball and run with it … and after you do well, do the right thing

… and if you don’t, it’s your problem not ours!

I will mention also, that we tried to make the algorithm work with NADEX  

call spreads, but it didn’t work out for 2 very big reasons; 1) optionality

premiums built into the call spread price, were disproportionately skewed by

moves in the futures, and 2) the evaporation of premiums hurt profits when

the market simply chopped and went nowhere. And, like I’ve said before, I’ve

had it with NADEX.

A brief glance over at the oil CFD, and the carnage continues unabated, with

now a greater than $4.00+ range on the day … last time I saw this kind of

action was in 2013, when oil got raped & pillaged after it broke the $100 mark

on the downside … so, it’s been a while. And for the record, this morning at

5 AM EST, right out of the gate, there was on oil algorithm sell signal at 60.35

in WTI … the liquidation signal came at 7:30 AM EST at 58.15.

Onto tomorrow mi amigos … let’s see how low this thing can go

… Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

CRUDE OIL: FREE MARKETS LAST STAND?

“Do you think these kids grew up and became Snowflakes!?”

Today sees a marked increase in oil VIX, as inventories balloon higher, and

it’s becoming painfully clear that China is walking away from any trade deal

… and that means lower world oil demand and lower prices … and judging

by the way the WTI crude oil CFD is responding today, traders are hitting

the exit gates from bullish positions and/or getting short.

We also have seen bid/offer spreads go up today … more along the lines of 4

cents versus 3 yesterday at Coinexx, and where Turnkey is simply not in the

same league. 4 cents doesn’t provide as good of a deal, naturally, but anything

5 cents or more and you have to walk away from the market, cuz you’re

giving too much up … oil simply isn’t worth it when bid/offer spreads are 5

cents and above.

With a 3 cent spread, Coinexx’s CFD actually is a far better deal than the

CME’s e-mini oil futures contract. Remember, the e-min is 500 barrels [½ the

size of the regular contract], and trades in 2 ½ cent minimum tick size.

Looking around at the various futures brokerage houses, about the best

round turn commission rate you’re going to get is about $1.25 per side, or

$2.50 per round turn. However, if you trade futures in energy, you have to

pay the CME price feed, which runs about $50 - $60 per month, unless you

trade more than 500 contracts per month. Do the math and the CFD is a

better deal. At 4 cent spreads, the math is slightly against you, but not a deal

killer, and remember the round turn commission at Coinexx is ⅕ a cent, so

it’s not anything that matters.

But the real question is, is oil the last free market [kinda] left to trade,

without overt manipulation? … and the answer is YES … granted, you got

tin horn dictators and the OPEC crew that do their best to produce as much as

they can, while talking out of the other side of their mouths and talking

production cuts … so yea, there is some manipulation from Vlad and the boys,

but there isn’t any government manipulation from the FED, and that’s a big

plus and a very big reason to trade the CFD.

All the other financial markets are manipulated to their teeth, but oil remains

resilient cuz 1) it’s the world’s largest commodity by far, and 2) you actually

have to take delivery of, or take possession of, any oil you buy or sell if you

hang on … meaning, it’s NOT cash settled and can be manipulated via the

CNTRL-P button and washed through the scumbag LP banks, with nobody

seeing the manipulation. Way too many eyes that would see actual oil change

hands if they decided to get their hands dirty.

And while I already mentioned the CME price feed fees you get to pay, for the

privilege of trading their futures [cough, bullshit, cough], another reason to

avoid the futures exchange and go offshore for the CFD, is the fact there are

no reporting requirements to the tax authorities … not encouraging anything

as regards to taxes, simply stating a stone cold FACT. Of course, the reason

most of the world trades CFD’s and avoids futures, is that CFD’s are

considered as legal bets [hence, the term “spread betting”], and therefore are

tax free most places. Why trade futures and pay taxes on gains, when you can

trade the same “Hoover Dam” thing as a CFD and it’s tax free? … duh.

As we move into the afternoon trading, WTI hanging around 61.00, which is

the low end of this range we’ve been in for a month … with a $2 range today,

more than likely we won’t see further downside action … but who knows with

oil … tomorrow becomes more interesting, though, as we’ll see what China

does overnight and how Europe handles their open for Brent … until

tomorrow mi amigos!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OIL GOES RETARD

“Pretty much sums up oil trading most days!”

Oil decides to spend the day off … right along with every other market

… not a whole lot going on anywhere … but at least it trades, unlike other

markets that are manipulated beyond belief.

Threw some crypto into Coinexx last night, and traded some WTI oil today

… bid/offer spread stayed steady at 3 cents most of the day, with an

occasional 2 cent spread seen … unlike Turnkey, trade execution was

immediate and I had no slippage … of course, with not much trading action,

you shouldn’t see any slippage, so they get no credit for doing their job.

Oil is increasingly becoming a 24/5 market … not everyday, but most days,

WTI starts moving at the European open, and often the swings in oil from

4AM EST - 8AM EST are equal to and exceed those moves seen from

8AM EST to 2:30 PM EST during New York trading hours … so, you have

wide latitude in picking your trading hours.

Today sees relatively subdued price action between 63.60 and 62.80 on the

Coinexx CFD for WTI crude oil … that came in a classic “A-B-C” 3 step

down move on the M5, right into the 100 Hour MA for the low, and then a

retest that saw it go a few pennies lower and then bounce hard to the upside.

With no overriding news to guide oil, except what’s been in the market for

weeks RE supply & demand issues, oil becomes very, very technically

oriented in its trading … ditto with Brent.

In the bigger picture, it’s the same old story of being trapped inside the

63.50-ish top and the 61.00-ish low, that’s been the story since April 29th,

and without fresh news to change the dynamic, there are sellers on top and

buyers near the bottom. Unless stocks go haywire here shortly, I don’t see

this changing.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas