“Stock indices & crude oil got nothin’ on Tony Montana!”
Before I get started today, it should be noted that in the last 2 days, we have
come fractionally close, to “ringing the register” on “binary options arbitrage
strategy” positions … both times, less than 0.25 RUT2000 index points have
separated us from “lottery ticket” wins that would have added approximately
$85 - $91 per 1 lot, in profit … on a small account of less than $1,000,
considering these were “risk free” positions at entry, this is no insignificant
amount of money. “Some days you get ‘em, and other days you don’t, but in the
final analysis, as you keep putting these positions on and racking up 5% - 9%+
rate of return on margin, FOR THE DAY, you’re gonna get your share over
time … I estimate about 0% - 5% over time they will hit and payoff big”.
It’s not even sunrise over the U.S., and already today, subscribers to the
signals service have “rung the register” handsomely utilizing the “volatility
call spread strategy”, in the RUT2000 [NADEX SYMBOL:
US SmallCap 2000]. Let’s get started with the details.
I positioned a RUT2000 “volatility call spread strategy” right out of the gate
last night at the open, a couple of hours before Asia even opened. I bought the
RUT2000 1345 - 1375 CS @ 1348.2, and I sold the RUT2000 1315 - 1345 CS
@ 1341.8 … My risk in the long position is 1348.2 - 1345 = 3.2 index points
… my risk in the short position is 1345 - 1341.8 = 3.2 index points … therefore,
my total MAX THEORETICAL RISK IN THE POSITION = 6.4 INDEX
POINTS = $64 PER 1 LOT. EXIT QUESTION: “Do you think over the next 23
hours, that the RUUT2000 stock index will have a daily range in excess of 6.4
index points? … according to the historical data, and given the fact that yesterday
saw the range = approximately 49 index points, AND the daily 20 Day Range
MA > 20+ index points, probability theory says there’s a 99%+ probability of
profit success in this trade … so yea, you do this trade with your eyes closed”!
The NADEX CONFIRMATION EMAILS directly below with trade fills.
click to enlarge ALL
“Well, that didn’t take long, now did it”? … hours later, I liquidate the long
position @ 1356.0 … 1356.0 - 1348.2 = +7.8 index points = $78 per 1 lot … at
this point, the short position is almost at MAX LOSS at 1344.6 offered, so I
have no pressure to take it off since I can only lose another 0.4 index points, or
$4 MAX PER 1 LOT, OVER THE REST OF THE DAY. With over 18 hours
left, what’s the point in liquidating it for a measly $4, especially since I just
made $78? … and so, my thinking is, at some point during Asia or Europe,
WHEN I’M ASLEEP, the index will correct some and go lower, the short
position will come off its ceiling and drop some, and I’ll be able to buy
[liquidate] around 1340 … so, I put a LIMIT order to buy @1340.0, and I go
to bed … I wake up to find I’m filled at 1340.0, so on top of the $78 I made
earlier, I just added another $18 to = $96. After commissions I netted, along
with signals subscribers $92 per 1 lot, on a trade with MAX THEORETICAL
LOSS OF $64, for an approximate return of 144%.
In reality, your max theoretical loss won’t come into play over the course of
the day, and your “real world” risk is about half of the theoretical amount
… doing that math then, I made $92 on $32 risk, almost a 300% return per 1
lot … but even here, in order to even come close to losing money, the RUT2000
can’t move an inch over the day … cuz if it does, [and it will and did], one side
will “pop” and the other side won’t do Mr. Jack Squat … “and when it moves,
be there to take the profit, regardless which way it goes, cuz it doesn’t matter
… I don’t care about price, I care about intraday volatility and I want it to move
… the bigger and quicker, the better for my position”! The important criteria
here, though, and it’s vitally important you understand this, so stop and think
about this for a minute or two before resuming the blog, is the following.
“You have to be there on the initial move “out of the box” … meaning, the first
move up or down will incite panic in traders on the wrong side of the move … this
will allow for the greatest “pop” in value of your long or short position that is in
profit … if your combined prices for each CS is roughly the same, whatever your
combined price is on the “synthetic straddle”, half of that index point total in
profit on either side will roughly equal a +50% return on MAX THEORETICAL
RISK, and a 100% rate of return on “real world” risk … now, who wouldn’t
want this almost every “Hoover Dam” trading day”!?
Using this last CS trade as an example, since I put it on at 6.4 index points, all
I really need over the course of the day, is an index point move of 3 - 4 points,
and I’m “ka-chinging” the register … given present volatility, that’s an
absolute “Slam Dunk” at some point during the day, without regards to where
price goes … and that’s why I say, “it’s a far better way to trade when you
understand the dynamics of what it is you’re doing … cuz the simple fact is, the
scumbag LP’s now work for me”! Directly below, the NADEX
CONFIRMATION EMAILS for liquidating the RUT2000 CS trade.
In between the entry and liquidation of the RUT2000 Call Spread trades, I did
do three [3] “binary option arbitrage strategy” trades, 2 in the RUT2000 and 1
in WTI Crude Oil. The first was in the RUT2000, where I bought the 1362
binary @ 15.25, and then immediately sold the RUT2000 1364 @ 21.25, for a
guaranteed profit = $6 per 1 lot. The NADEX CONFIRMATION EMAILS
directly below.
The second binary trades I did, were in WTI Crude Oil, where I bought the
48.00 binary @ 18.00, and then sold the 48.20 binary @ 22.25, for a
guaranteed profit of $4.25 per 1 lot. The NADEX CONFIRMATION
EMAILS directly below.
The third and final trade was back in the RUT2000. I bought the 1366 binary
@ 12.75, and I immediately sold the 1368 BINARY @ 20.25, for a guaranteed
profit of $7.50 per 1 lot. The NADEX CONFIRMATION EMAILS directly
below.
Adding it all up, 6 + 4.25 + 7.50 = 17.75 per 1 lot before commissions, in
guaranteed profit. “Bring on the rest of the day”!
And the rest of the day is a pile of “nothingburger”!
Crude did nothing, stock indices are consolidating, gold rallied, but the “call
spreads” in gold aren’t very good …. We can’t utilize the same strategies we do
in the RUT2000, cuz gold doesn’t have tight spreads, making it very difficult to
get positions near a ceiling or floor, where we can take advantage of the
structure of the “call spreads”. All told on the day, we netted about $110 per 1
lot on a small account, and I’d consider that a great day of trading if I had a
$500 - $1,000 account balance … sure as hell can’t do that at Turnkey, without
taking a lot more risk than we take here.
Onto tomorrow … I’m outta here for a cold one … until tomorrow mi amigos
… Onward & Upward!!
UPDATE @ 4:15PM EST: Crude Oil & RUT2000 have CLOSED and we
receive our guaranteed profit from last night … no lottery ticket wins today.
Have a great day everybody!
receive our guaranteed profit from last night … no lottery ticket wins today.
Have a great day everybody!
-vegas
OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY
WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES IN 20
OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, & STOCK
INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?
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