OIL & CRYPTO END YEAR ON A SOUR NOTE

“When all your friends trade either crypto or crude oil!”

Well, not much to say about either space, here at year end … dull as dishwater

comes to mind … fact is IVIX [Intraday Volatility] has been taken out back of the

barn and shot in the head, and left for dead … and up and until that comes back

to life, anyone who trades either of these is going to be either very lucky or very

disappointed … my guess is disappointed, cuz even if you get lucky, the costs to

trade each, especially crypto, are going to make any meager gains look not so

good.

I wish I had better news, but I’m a trader not an analyst … it is what it is until IVIX

comes back, and until then stay away … no blog tomorrow cuz it’s New Year’s

Day … until Thursday mi amigos … Onward & Upward!! 

Have a safe & joyous New Year’s Eve everybody!

-vegas

OIL SHOWS A PULSE … CRYPTO DEAD

“Well, if it’s oil or crypto, I can’t say I blame you!”

Oil shows a little pulse today, but crypto is basically dead meat … quite frankly,

even though it’s during the 2 week end of year Holiday period, I’m disappointed

in PRIMEXBT’s oil CFD, as it is not showing the kind of consistency I want in a

CFD … too much bullshit with their LP’s, and at various times they blow the

spread out for no reason whatsoever … if this stuff had $3 - $4 ranges every day,

yea I could understand, but with the 20 Day Range MA at $1, and nothing really

going on, how can you justify paying anything more than 3 cents a barrel for

total cost? It simply makes ZERO sense … we’ll see what the New Year brings

before I climb all over ‘em and raise hell.

In crypto, you do realize it costs 10X more to trade BTC, on a round turn

commission, than it does GBPUSD? … what do you get for this? … well lately,

you get NADA cuz it’s not moving, and until it does, you have to stay away from

the space … just no other alternative, cuz every place else that trades BTC or

other crypto, the spreads are past ridiculous, the commission structure is

insane, and the margins are extremely high [5X tops] … so until BTC starts to

move, and its range gets higher, there’s no good reason to trade it cuz you’re

throwing money away for nothing … until tomorrow mi amigos

… Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: CAN ANYTHING MAKE OIL & CRYPTO MOVE THIS WEEK?

“What crude oil & crypto feel like right now!”

Can anything make any of this stuff move this week? … I’m guessing no it can’t,

so outside of Cable & maybe the “Tulip Bulb 30” manipulation providing a spark, I

don’t see any hope for either crypto or oil to move this week with New Year’s Day

on Wednesday …of course now that I’ve said this, look for explosives moves all

week.

Directly below, WTI Crude Oil 20 Day Range MA for the upcoming week.

click on ANY chart to enlarge

Directly below, the U.S. Dollar crypto pairs.

Directly below, the BTC crosses.

While BTC is stable around $300 [kinda, it’s going lower though], everything else

is getting “monkey hammered” lower. Oil in particular at $1, is really a come down

from where it was weeks earlier … it needs to be at least at around or above $1.50,

and we are nowhere near that … if you look at the VIX MATRIX TABLE over on

traderzoogold, you can clearly see that NONE of the BTC crosses is worth trading

… just simply way too expensive in terms of trading cost relative to its 20 Day

Range MA … unless you get lucky, there’s no way to win trading any of these

intraday, and carrying a crypto position is super expensive via “vig” … until

tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!

-vegas

GENERALLY SPEAKING, HOLIDAY MARKETS SUCK

“When a trader gives up, walks out into the snow, and tries to die!”

Not much to cheer about if you’re trying to trade crypto or crude oil this week,

and today sees PRIMEXBT bid/offer crude oil spreads blow out to 6 cents a

barrel … “Yup, I was all over ‘em like hot sauce in chili”! … I realize it’s Holiday

time, and markets are thin, but this shit is ridiculous … I mean, oil is dead

anyway, with IVIX going “Thelma & Louise” “bigly & yuge”, but still.

Crypto meanwhile, BTC specifically, simply meandering around 7200 - 7300 and

its range this week hasn't been anything to write home to Mom about … both

spaces getting wrung out to dry, and if you attempt to trade in this you’re nuts.

Outta here early … can’t stand watching paint dry … blog update on Sunday

… until then mi amigos … Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas

FUGETABOUTIT!

“Trade today? … on Boxing Day? … FUGETABOUTIT!”

Literally ZERO  to wrap your arms around today in either crude oil or crypto

… not unexpected … Boxing Day like the day after Easter, which means NADA

is gonna happen in most markets.

An interesting article over on ZH today on Bitcoin [BTC] … the link directly

below.

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/2-billion-plustoken-scam-driving-down-

price-bitcoin

If you’re gonna pull a scam, make sure it’s a big one! … until tomorrow mi

amigos … Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

SURE THEY SAID … THE MARKET’S OPEN

“I hope it’s not crypto & crude oil!”

Well, if you’re in this clusterfark of a trading day in either crypto or crude oil, may

the force be with you … you’re gonna need it. Whew, what a waste of time

… come back Thursday maybe, but most likely Friday and see what happens

next … right now this is “Deadsville”!

No blog tomorrow cuz it’s Christmas… enjoy with friends & family … until

Thursday mi amigos … Onward & Upward!! … MERRY CHRISTMAS!!

Have a great & joyous Christmas everybody!

-vegas

CRYPTO MOVES SLIGHTLY, BUT OIL IS DEAD

“Oil VIX that is!”

Last person to trade oil, please turn the lights off in the trading closet you’re in

… boy is this pathetic … into the P.M. of New York, and oil has a 50 cent range

… well, nothing you can do but turn away and leave it alone … bid/offer spreads

are higher by a penny today, no doubt cuz of the Holiday week, but do you really

want to trade something that has no life, no “Intraday VIX” [IVIX], and the costs

are higher? 

Crypto not much better, although over the weekend BTC had a good move up

… still, IVIX has got to go higher in BTC for me to trade it … at least $400 on the

20 Day Range MA. otherwise it’s just too expensive relative to its movement.

Not much else to report on … light volume flows in crypto, and NO flows in crude

oil … until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: OIL VIX TAKES A HIT

“Aaaaaaaaand oil was his name!”

Directly below, the 20 Day Range MA for WTI Crude Oil for the upcoming week.

click on any chart to enlarge

And Yup, we’re scraping the yearly low in crude oil VIX, and quite frankly I don’t

see it getting better for at least a few weeks from now, if then … I don’t see world

oil demand picking up that much, and with proposed production cuts in the works

by OPEC+, who wants to be the first one to trust these assclowns? … and so the

market sits and does very little as it tries to inch higher ... gonna be a big struggle

to maintain price above $60 - $61 IMHO … simply too many good trades and

markets elsewhere to trade that make a helluva lot more sense than oil right now.

Directly below, the Dollar crypto pairs.

BTC holding steady above $300+ for range, but underneath the figures for the

others, there have been some massive breakdowns going into year end … no

doubt, BTC is the “gold standard” for crypto, and as we head into 2020 and the

“halving” that comes in May, I Iook for price to be steady to higher throughout

the year … however it should be noted, that if you trade BTC the “net cost to

trade” it is very high … even smaller accounts and volumes will pay 0.12% of the

value of the notional you’re trading … that means you need to see BTC move in

your profit direction by at least $7.5 per 1 BTC before you make any money

… looking at the 20 Day Range MA for the upcoming week at $338.0, that cost is

2.2% of the average range … by contrast, note that trading Cable [GBPUSD] at

the same notional level as 1 BTC, costs about 6.3 cents per 1,000 notional … if I

traded 7,000 GBPUSD, the cost would be $0.45 … 7,000 GBPUSD = approximately

$9,100 … GBPUSD 20 Day Range MA for the upcoming week = 107.1 PIPS … the

cost to trade GBPUSD = 0.45 / 107.1 = 0.0042 = 0.42% … IT COSTS 500% MORE

TO TRADE BTC THAN IT DOES CABLE … something to think about before

trading … for me personally, I need to see BTC get above a $400 20 Day Range

MA before I will look at it.

Directly below the BTC crosses.

Anybody but me see a pattern in the BTC crosses? … right, they’re all moving

lower, which means leave them alone! … bid/offer spreads + round turn [RT]

commission levels most definitely need to be looked at before you trade any of

these crosses [see traderzoogold for the “VIX MATRIX” Table] … right now, every

single one of them looks extremely expensive to trade, and added to that fact

they show no ability to extend higher any average over weeks and months

… until that changes, why trade this sector?

Onto the week, we’ll see if there are any surprises … I doubt it … until tomorrow

mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas