OIL SEES THE $50 HANDLE … NO END IN SIGHT

“So says every oil trader who’s tried to get long!”

I have no idea where the bottom is for oil … OPEC is trying to hastily call a

February meeting to cut production, but is facing push back … let’s face it, the

world is awash in oil, and with China imploding and maybe setting the world into

a depression via the coronavirus, getting long oil is like staring into the abyss

… trouble comes when the abyss stares back.

Blog update on Sunday … until then mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas

CRYPTO MAINTAINS ITS POISE

“A round of applause for Bitcoin [BTC], if you don’t mind!”

Remarkable that BTC has remained well bid during the latest coronavirus

pandemic … the smartest guys in the room had assured everybody a few weeks

ago, that BTC was headed a lot lower, with some suggesting outrageous levels on

the downside … here in a few months [May to be exact], BTC goes through another

“halving”, meaning the amount of BTC “miners” get to verify the block chain of

transactions gets cut in half … all other times have seen price explode after a

“halving”, so it’ll be interesting to see what the later part of 2020 looks like.

No doubt, though, given the profligate nature of central banks & governments to

print “QE funny money” and inflate fiat currency, more & more people around the

world turn to crypto to “save themselves” from government … and quite frankly,

over the next 10 years, crypto will explode like you’ve never dreamed of, and while

I used to think John McAfee was nuts for predicting BTC at $1 million dollars per

coin, the more I study the dynamics of the crypto space, the more institutions

adopt BTC as an asset, the more I’ve come to believe he may in fact be right

… and while it’s not gonna happen tomorrow, there’s no question the U.S. Dollar

is on its last legs as a reserve currency … that job will move to crypto as sure as

I’m sittin’ here.

Today sees a somewhat slow range day in BTC … not much going on, but I

would note it’s doing well staying above $9K, and is well bid … until tomorrow

mi amigos … Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

MORE OF THE SAME, JUST A DIFFERENT DAY

“Sums up crude oil & crypto pretty well, IMHO!”

Any way you want to slice the oil trade, it’s nothing but a continuation

day-after-day of the same shit … blow the shorts out and rally, then blow the

longs out with a “Thelma & Louise” … pick your poison ...  geopolitics, OPEC, oil

inventories reports, etc., it doesn’t matter cuz the market won’t discriminate in

screwing you … it’s been so long since oil has been in some kind of trend, I

forgot what it looks like … simply back & forth between $52 - $60, with the

occasional blimp on either side to hunt stops, it’s nothing but a “meat grinder”,

best left alone … and quite frankly, given the trading conditions versus other

markets, for example NDX100 at PRIMEXBT, you have  a much better shot of

making money in an “88/6/6” market with better trading conditions than you do

in oil … and I don’t see oil getting any better anytime soon.

For crypto, specifically BTC, it’s simply too expensive to trade … if you’re wrong

on the trade, that $10 - $13 cost is gonna bite … quite frankly, given the cost

structure of crypto exchanges, and taking into account the need to hedge and fill

customer orders, I don’t see the costs coming down soon … someday they will,

but for now most places that trade crypto heavily have a -0.025% “maker fee” and

a 0.075% “taker fee”, and that’s if they are aggressively competitive for traders

… PRIMEXBT comes in at 0.05% on each trade, so they simply cut the middle

… that’s not gonna change until factors outside their control within the industry

change as well … so don’t look for crypto to get much cheaper this year.

… until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

JUST CLOSE OIL DOWN AND SPARE US

“Well, I was hoping to trade some crude oil!”

Crude oil is toast … stick a fork in it, it’s dead … as a market to be involved with

via a CFD, leave it the hell alone, or you’re gonna wish you had those pins in your

face … the pain would be easier to take!

As for crypto, BTC sees a move over 9K, which it promptly gives back inside a

lackluster range … probably some OK algo signals to buy earlier today, but as I’ve

said before, until the 20 Day Range MA moves over $400, it’s too expensive to

trade given the level of IVIX … the industry needs lower costs, and eventually they

will get it, but for right now it’s very costly to trade, and on the days that are

lackluster in terms of IVIX, you’re gonna wish you were trading something else.

… until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

NO JOY IN THE OIL KINGDOM

“Oil will turn you into this!”

Nothing positive you can say about either space … oil is stuck, and crypto

“fiddle farts around”. And while diddling isn’t entirely bad, it is when the cost

structure to trade it is too “Hoover Dam” high … nothing new under the sun

here.

… until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

SUNDAY UPDATE: GLOOM & DOOM IN OIL

“Want to know why crude oil has a hard time rallying? … here ya go!”

Who the hell needs OPEC? … the U.S. is a “net exporter” of energy now, unlike

the days of Jimmy Carter when we were at the mercy of others … it’s very hard to

gauge the “war premium” that is built into oil right now, especially after the

clusterfark with Iran a few weeks ago, but it’s clear any decent rally gets sold

pretty hard & fast if given the chance … given the relative high cost to trade

crude from a CFD perspective, if the market is in “limbo”, why attempt to trade

it?

Directly below, this week’s 20 Day Range MA for WTI Crude Oil.

click on ANY chart to enlarge

Directly below, the 20 day Range MA’s for USD crypto pairs.

At a minimum some stabilization of range’s … BTC especially needs a higher

value over $400 before I’ll look at it again.

Directly below, the 20 day Range MA’s for BTC CROSSES.

If you haven’t been over to traderzoogold to check out the “VIX MATRIX TABLE”,

go over and take a look, cuz I’ve put a new column that shows the total cost to

trade pairs relative to their average ranges … and it’s not good for crypto at

present, as costs are really high … at some point somebody does come along

and lower costs, and then the entire industry adapts overnight and costs suddenly

go down … over the last 20 years, we’ve seen this in FX and in CFD’s, in spurts

and dashes, and it will eventually happen in crypto … for now, though, the

industry seems content to keep high trading costs as a staple, with most crypto

exchanges keeping their -0.025% “maker” fee and their +0.075 “taker” fee on

crypto transactions … PRIMEXBT simply levels the field for traders with 0.05%

fee on every trade no matter whether you’re entering market orders or limit

orders. Like I said, someday somebody with big bucks changes the game and

moves the paradigm, but it doesn’t appear imminent … until tomorrow mi

amigos … Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!

-vegas

THE OIL TRAIN WRECK … CRYPTO SLEEPS

“Oil says hello to the $53 handle!”

Oil heads south touching the $53 handle, and if this coronavirus gets worse than

current perceptions, say hello to “Thelma & Louise” … a very good short article

today over on ZH on oil, and why the coronavirus matters, the link directly below.

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/why-coronavirus-real-threat-oil-markets

Right now, I can’t think of a worse market to trade than oil … high costs to trade

given current CFD costs, upside limited due to a worldwide glut of crude, and

slowing demand, especially from China, and downside a nightmare given the

world’s geopolitical environment … that spells “nightmare” in my book.

Meanwhile, crypto sleeps with BTC today barely having a $200 range … again,

the cots to trade BTC are just to “Hoover Dam” high given the 20 Day Range MA

… you’re simply paying through the nose for action you ain’t getting!

Blog update on Sunday … until then mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas

IN SEARCH OF AN HONEST MARKET

“Crypto can be magic!”

Crude oil continues to go south, simply cuz the world is swimming in crude, and

the longs are getting shaken out due to the coronavirus scare in China, and it

potential impact on oil demand in the world economy … crypto today [BTC] putting

in a halfway decent range of approximately $375, and the IVIX was above average

… some really good algorithm short signals in BTC today.

The problem of course isn’t Bitcoin [BTC] as a market … the problem is the cost to

trade it, cuz it’s approximately 10X MORE EXPENSIVE TO TRADE than anything in

FX, including gold & silver … and this is a key reason I’m not touching it until its

20 Day Range MA is over $400 … I’m not handing money to a brokerage house just

to trade something … “c’mon Dudes!, gimme some value”!

Outside of FX CHOICE for their oil CFD’s, which are right there at 3 cents per

barrel net cost to trade, there isn’t anything else available that makes sense

… PRIMEXBT used to have the best conditions, then somebody somewhere got

to them and they changed it, more than likely, out of reasons of pure greed

… “well, fuck that, I’m not paying upwards of 7 cents a barrel to trade oil, when it

used to be around 2.4 cents per barrel … that’s just stupid! … quite frankly,

nobody in the world is interested in offering a really good crude oil CFD, and

while the FX CHOICE OIL CFD I give a grade of “C+”, the rest are pure shit and

total ripoffs.

… until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas