THOUGHTS ON CRYPTO

“Somehow it makes sense!”

Over the last approximate 6 ½ months, BTC has an SDEV [standard deviation] of

about $325 in its daily ranges … that’s not very far away from its current 20 Day

Range MA of $310 … if you wish to trade, for example 5 BTC [roughly $45,000

notional], the bid/offer spread is approximately $3, and the RT commission is

approximately $9 that you have to factor into the price … all told, that’s about $12

you have to overcome to break even, and that is approximately 4% of both the

current 20 Day Range MA AND the SDEV of the last 6 ½ months of daily ranges

… EXIT QUESTION: “who pays 4%of the expected daily range to trade

anything”? … given this data, no wonder banks ask no questions to open your

account!

Would you trade the DOW30 if the “net trading cost” [bid/offer spread + RT

commission] was 10 index points? … gold, if the cost was $0.70+? … how about

Cable [GBPUSD] if the cost was 4 PIPS? … all 3 are right at 4% … so if you

wouldn’t trade with those horrific costs, why would you do it via BTC, or any

other crypto which has similar costs?

One of two things has to happen in this space … 1) IVIX goes higher and stays

there, OR 2) commissions have to be lowered … don’t look for either anytime

soon … and right now, that’s a big problem in this space, cuz it’s to “Hoover

Dam” expensive to trade relative anything else you care to name … over time it

will be corrected, but on the other hand in the long run we’re all dead!

Oil? … I got a bad feeling about oil, that isn’t going away … the world is awash

in oil, so there’s no shortage of supply … on the other hand, the cynic in me says

certain parties promote, and then carry out, false flags to disrupt supply via

geopolitical drama that spikes price so they can sell … caught between a rock &

a hard place, where does oil go then? … “well, it goes nowhere, simply chopping

specs up and fading every move up/down with more money than anybody else

has” … it’s what banks do, and it’s what central banks encourage, and it makes

for a B. I. Itch in terms of trading conditions … and I don’t think it’s gonna

improve anytime soon … until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas