“The hands we get are the ones we ask for!”
At the open last night, we get the usual “helter skelter” of prices in the binaries,
that put money in our pocket … RISK FREE I might add … and it led to a
series of four [4] “binary option arbitrage strategy” signals being sent to
subscribers. I’m going to go over each one, and describe why I put them on,
and what the “payout” will be at 4:15PM EST today, after the FED meeting is
over and done.
First up, the US SmallCap 2000 [a/k/a Russell 2000] buying the 1390 binary
@ 16.50, and then selling the 1392 binary @ 25.00. No matter what happens
today on the close, below 1390 or above 1392, I’m guaranteed to make $8.50
per 1 lot, but if by chance the RUT2000 closes between 1390 & 1392, I would
make an extra $83.50 [100 - 16.50] per 1 lot! … so why do this trade, or any of
the following trades? … “RISK FREE MONEY THAT’S WHY, with the added
kicker of a small probability of seeing it close between prices for a lottery type
win”! … just on the guaranteed payout, $8.50 is approximately 9.3% on the
margin put up on the combined position [16.50 + 75.00 = $91.50 needed for
margin]. If by small chance the RUT2000 closes between 1390 & 1392, there’s
an additional $83.50 per 1 lot added to the $8.50, for a gain of $92.00 per 1 lot,
“equaling approximately a 100% return, NOT ON RISK CAPITAL CUZ
THERE ISN’T ANY AT RISK, BUT ON MARGIN PUT UP FOR THE
POSITION”.
Directly below, the NADEX CONFIRMATION EMAILS for the first
positioned “binary options arbitrage strategy” trade. [NOTE: When you see me
do 5 lots for the signals service, it means it’s a “slam dunk” trade, and you can
“load the boat” so to speak, and do as many as your account will allow, or you
want to position.]
click on to enlarge ALL
A few minutes later, an interesting proposition pops up, leading me to my
second position in the RUT2000 … “here, in this specific case, it’s not the price
differential that gets me in the trade, although there is a very tiny profit baked
into the cake … it’s the binary differential between strikes, which sees me make
the trade cuz they are so wide apart, and if the RUT2000 closes between them, it’s
a lottery ticket win”. The second trade, I buy the US SmallCap 2000
[a/k/a Russell 2000] 1348 binary @ 86.50, and then sell the 1356 binary
@ 89.25 … there’s an 8 index point spread between the two, and if the FED
drives stock indices lower today, that’s a range between the two that is very
wide for us to hit the lottery ticket scenario this trade was made for and hopes
to see.
Directly below, the NADEX CONFIRMATION EMAILS for the second
positioned “binary options arbitrage strategy” trade.
The third positioned signals service trade, sees us over in WTI Crude Oil.
Here, I’m buying the Crude Oil (Feb) >47.10 (2:30PM) binary @ 22.50, and
then immediately selling the Crude Oil (Feb) >47.30 (2:30PM) binary @27.50.
Not only do we get $5 per 1 lot, risk free return, but we have 2 binaries that
are 20 cents apart, approximately 50 cents above the close from yesterday
… with any luck at the close today, we got a shot for another lottery ticket win,
in addition to the $5 per 1 lot we get for waiting.
Directly below, the NADEX CONFIRMATION EMAILS for the third
positioned “binary options arbitrage strategy” trade.
Our fourth and final position for the signals service, came out of nowhere, and
I hopped on it quickly … I’m buying the US SmallCap 2000 (Mar) >1354.0
(4:15PM) @ 82.50, and then immediately selling the US SmallCap 2000 (Mar)
>1360.0 (4:15PM) @ 88.25. Not only do we get $5.75 per 1 lot, but again we
have a 6 index point spread to play with here, giving us yet again another shot
at a lottery ticket win at the close. Taken together, the RUT2000 positions pay
off big with any close between 1348 & 1360, or 1390 & 1392 … “and with the
FED creating chaos in the last 2 hours of trading today, we got a shot either
higher or lower, for a lottery ticket win”!
Directly below, the NADEX CONFIRMATION EMAILS for the fourth, and
final, positioned “binary options arbitrage strategy” trade.
Adding it all up, regardless of whether any of these “hit” at expiration to
goose gains into the stratosphere, our guaranteed profits are 8.5 + 2.75 + 5.75
+ 5 = $22 per 1 lot before commissions. Assuming approximately $100 margin
per 1 lot, that’s a guaranteed gain of $22 using [NOT RISKING] $400, for a
return on margin of approximately 5.5% FOR THE DAY … “admittedly, it’s a
little lower today, simply cuz I’ve widened some strikes to increase the likelihood
of a lottery ticket win at the close. If you choose to skip those, doing the first one
in size ONLY, you’d see a 9.3% return on margin FOR THE DAY … and no
matter which path you chose, you can’t lose mi amigos”!
Last night didn’t see any “call spreads” that fit into my criteria for 99%+
profitability … the RUT2000 was just outside … it would have still worked out
this morning for profit, but it’s simply not what I’m looking for … ditto in
some of the FX pairs, which were slightly higher, no doubt due to the FED
today, and I considered “expensive” relative to reward … “you’re paying for
20 hours, & cuz of the FED you end up getting only 2 hours of volatility … in my
minds eye, this is not a winning formula”.
For the record, so far at least since the signals service began a week ago on
December 10, 2018, there haven’t been any opportunities for my “volatility call
spread strategy” to be utilized in gold, FX, or crude oil … the prices for the
volatility are simply too high at present … FX pairs keep skirting acceptable
price combo limits, and most nights are very close … but, criteria is criteria,
and the price you pay for volatility matters to your bottom line, so we patiently
wait for opportunity wherever and whenever it presents itself.
Just before stocks open, a liquidation of the Crude Oil binary trade … I sent
the signal out to liquidate at 65 & 35 … crude being a fast moving market, I
got 69.25 & 50.25, about a third less than when I hit the trade liquidation
buttons … we still are better off, profit wise, than we would be at expiration,
but some money got left on the table nonetheless. The NADEX
CONFIRMATION EMAILS directly below.
I see, looking at a new set of “call spreads” in the RUT2000, a really good very
high probability trade. For the signals service subs, I’m buying the 1390 - 1410
CS @ 1391.5, and selling the 1370 -1390 CS @ 1386. IMHO, this is too “tight”
given what’s coming at 2 PM EST., and if the market can move ever so
slightly, dimply a few index points EITHER WAY CUZ IT DOESN’T
MATTER, I’ll ring the register. The NADEX CONFIRMATION EMAILS
directly below.
And sure enough, a little while later I’m liquidating with an approximate 50%
return on MAX THEORETICAL RISK in the trade. The NADEX
CONFIRMATION EMAILS directly below.
So, I make money on both sides … go figure … but it has to do with the
“optionality” of the price versus the floor & ceiling, and an almost risk free
trade. Here are the trades: B1391.5 - S1392.1 = 0.6 * 2 = +1.2 = $12 … S1386.0 -
B1383.5 = +2.5 = +25. $25+$12 = $37 - $4 [total commissions] = +$33 net for
MAX THEORETICAL RISK OF $70 PER 1 LOT. My return is just a hair
under 50% … “thanks, come again”! And as you’ll notice, I “Christmas treed”
this trade with a 2 to 1 ratio of buys to sells, cuz from my buy price I have max
risk of 1.5 index points, and my sell has a max risk of 4 index points … when
prices are this tight, all the index has to do is move a few points and you’re in
the chips! … either way, who cares … all I’m doing here is playing volatility in
the marketplace, and i could care less what price does … “that’s why I said
yesterday, that we have the scumbag LP’s working for us, cuz no matter who they
screw with their shenanigans, we benefit to the side they move it to … go ahead,
try and do this trade at Turnkey … good luck with that! … This is the better way
to trade”!
“Well, that was interesting”! … and while you can sit here all day & night and
muse over the paltry 50% I made, and left a lot more on the table after the
FED decision, I got no complaints making 50%+ on risk capital, anytime and
anywhere … it adds up to a shipload of money folks!
That’s it for today, I’m exhausted … didn’t do any oil trades today, cuz I was
busy in the RUT2000 printing money; why go over to oil and risk anything?
… adding everything up, on a small account under $500, the tally is over +$100
profit … “sure, do this at Turnkey or anywhere else for that matter, and let me
know how that goes … the fact is, I did it with almost no risk to capital … and, I
got the scumbag LP’s working for me instead of against me … find me anywhere
else where you can say that? … me neither”!
I’m outta here mi amigos … until tomorrow … Onward & Upward!!
UPDATE 1: “I got a shot at a lottery ticket win in the RUT binaries, cuz we got
on the 1348 - 1360 spread … any close in this spread and we receive an extra
$88 per 1 lot! ...an hour to go.
UPDATE 2 @ 4:15PM EST: Our remaining binaries in RUT2000 have expired
on the 1348 - 1360 spread … any close in this spread and we receive an extra
$88 per 1 lot! ...an hour to go.
UPDATE 2 @ 4:15PM EST: Our remaining binaries in RUT2000 have expired
with no lottery ticket windfall today, other than what I reported earlier for our
risk free trades.
Have a great day everybody!
-vegas
OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY
WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES IN 20
OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, & STOCK
INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?
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