“Making probability theory your BFF!”
I don’t care about price, and therefore am unwilling to chase it … I could care
less if gold is at $5,000 per OZ. or $500 per OZ. … whether oil is at $180 per
bbl., $80 per bbl., or $40 per bbl. … whether the SP500 is at 3,000 or 300
… simply put, markets are not a reflection of wealth, but simply a mechanism
to achieve wealth … too many people maintain the mistaken belief that it is
“price” that matters … price only matters to amateurs … there are only 2
things that matter; 1) probability theory relating to your profitable success,
and 2) intraday volatility of any specific market … come even close to getting
the second one accurately modeled, and the first will make you rich … simple
as that.
“Flat out, without any qualms or reservations whatsoever, I can tell you that in
all my many decades and years of trading, the financial derivatives offered on
NADEX, are and should be a major “game changer” for spec traders, both small
and large … there isn’t any other place, except maybe OTC exotics from a large
bank to a large hedge fund, where you’re gonna find the necessary derivative
products that combine futures, CFD’s, and options … and then give you access to
the world’s major markets from which to choose … all with far less risk than you
currently are biting off no matter where you trade”!
A while back, I stated on the gold blog post, that unless the paradigm of
trading changed, I probably wouldn’t write another trading manual or do
another tutorial … “well, I didn’t figure on NADEX and the products they offer
… cuz quite frankly mi amigos, they have changed the game of trading more
than just about anything I can think of … and in the process, have unleashed
the power of probability theory to heights I could only dream about, when
thinking of markets and how best to make money consistently over time … and
so, on New Year’s Day, a whole bunch of data files are going to be hosted in
“Download Links” [not there yet], in the right hand column, along with a tutorial
manual RE the signals service … the purpose of which is to give you ALL the
necessary tools to make shiploads of cash, in one handy place [here!], whether
you want to do the work on your own, or sit back and let us do the work and give
you the signals for pennies a day”!
Coming back from the Christmas Holiday, last night sees the open of the first
full day of trading … and most importantly, we get a trading signal in one of
our favorite markets, the U.S. Russell 2000 stock index, a/k/a the U.S.
SmallCap 2000 on NADEX.
We start with one of the highest probability of profit readings you’re most
likely ever to see, and it’s reflected in the fact that I did a 5 lot for the signals
service subscribers … normally I do a 1 lot, which means doing a 5 lot is a
“slam dunk”, no brainer for profit just below “risk free”. First, I did a 2 lot in
the RUT2000 call spreads, and then quickly realized it wasn’t moving away
from me, and did another 3 lot, for a total of 5 lots on each side. The NADEX
CONFIRMATION EMAILS directly below.
click to enlarge ALL
From these, you can see, I bought the 1330 - 1360 CS, 2 lots @ 1334.7, & 3 lots
@ 1333.5 … I sold the 1300 - 1330 CS, 2 lots @ 1326.9, & 3 lots @1326.3.
Liquidation sees 5 lots bought @ 1324.8, and 5 lots sold @ 1336.5. The
liquidation NADEX CONFIRMATION EMAILS directly below.
So, doing the simple math, 1336.5 - 1334.7 = 1.8 * 2 = +3.6 … 1336.5 - 1333.5 =
3.0 * 3 = +9.0 … 1326.9 - 1324.8 = 2.1 * 2 = +4.2 … 1326.3 - 1324.8 = 1.5 * 3 =
+4.5. Adding it all up, 3.6 + 9.0 + 4.2 + 4.5 = +21.3 - commissions of 0.4 = 20.9
index points = $209. Total THEORETICAL RISK CAPITAL on the trade of
approximately $75 * 5 = $375 … total real world MAX RISK = approximately
$185.
Bottom line is this: return of approximately 56% on MAX THEORETICAL
RISK IN THE TRADE, and a return of approximately 112% on real world
risk … and this is for the day.
“Did I think there was more to the trade? … most certainly … do I care? … most
certainly NOT”! … take $500 in risk capital, and make 50% a day … at the end
of the month [20 trading days] your account is up $12,500 … do this for a year,
and that account is up $150,000 on $500 risk capital … leverage up your risk
capital amount periodically, and it’s a helluva lot higher … “and while I
understand the desire to milk volatility for all its worth, I also understand growing
cash balances and the fact that stock indices volatility isn’t and can’t stay this high
going forward … I play volatility to make me money, not to try and figure out how
high or how low it goes, and when it goes there … I allow the positions MAX time,
and then look to book profits as quickly as possible consistent with achieving my
goal of 50%+ on the trade … I’m not guessing where volatility is going, simply
allowing it to “do its thing” so I can ring the register and build additional wealth
inside a 99%+ probability of success scenario”! And here’s a NEWS FLASH:
“there isn’t anywhere else that offers this kind of flexibility in trading
… nowhere … and quite frankly, it puts to shame the traditional way of trading,
which is attempting to figure out what the scumbag LP’s are gonna do to a
market without hurting you … here, these scumbags work for us, not against us,
cuz no matter what they do to others, when they do it we are standing in line to
profit”!
In addition to the RUT2000 “call spreads”, I also did a RUT2000 “binary
options arbitrage strategy” trade … the NADEX CONFIRMATION EMAILS
directly below.
I bought the lower strike price LOWER, while at the same time selling the
higher strike price HIGHER in price @ 5.25 … this is “risk free” guaranteed
money at the 4:15 PM EST expiration, but in addition to that, if the RUT2000
rallies higher for the day, the “arbitrage” turns into a “volatility” play, and
what will happen is that the difference between the two will widen, thus
allowing for more profit … simply glancing at the NADEX P/L throughout the
day keeps me updated if this happens … and if it does, we’ll be there to “ring
the register” … if it doesn’t, we still have the guaranteed risk free money we
bagged last night … in other words, we can’t lose here. We’ll see if anything
comes of it later in the day … probably not, but who knows.
Another RUT2000 “call spread” [CS] trade presents itself, with the new CS’s at
8 AM EST … the CS’s with the common strike floor & ceiling are overpriced,
and therefore shouldn’t be entered into … instead, there is another very low
risk opportunity in an overlapping pair of “call spreads” … specifically, the
1290 - 1310 & the 1300 - 1320 … I take a position here with a 1.6 index point
price and risk per 1 lot. The NADEX EMAIL CONFIRMATIONS directly
below.
A short time later, I liquidated it for profit. The NADEX EMAIL
CONFIRMATIONS directly below.
As you can see, I bought the 1300 - 1320 @ 1307.9, and liquidated it @ 1313.5,
for a gain = 5.6 index points … I sold the 1290 - 1310 @ 1306.3, and liquidated
it @ 1309.0, for a loss = -2.7 index points. That’s a net gain [after commissions]
of 2.9 index points on MAX THEORETICAL RISK of 1.6 index points, for a
greater than 100% return on risk capital in the trade … profit = $29.
“As you can see, a far superior way to trade than the horseshit I’m putting up with
at Turnkey, where all they can do is give me a dead market, a group of the worst
scumbag LP’s to deal with, massive slippage, and shit fills … right along with the
world’s most manipulated market, that sees more and more people turn away from
it daily, who simply are sick & tired of getting fucked blind for no reason … no mi
amigos, this IS THE WAY TO TRADE”!!!
Here in the New York afternoon, stock indices extremely choppy, digesting
yesterday’s massive move higher, that saw the DJIA move up an all time record
of over 1,000 points on the day … it should be no surprise today sees some
backing and filling, before the next move to wherever.
Adding it all up for the day, assuming the RUT2000 binaries end up with no
lottery ticket win, or move higher that could see a volatility liquidation for
further profit, we have $20 + $209 + $29 = +$258 for the day on a small
account … where I might add, most importantly, the risk to capital was never
more than about $130 total … “forget the “stops”, forget the scumbag LP’s
working against you … MAKE THEM WORK FOR YOU! … these volatility
strategies are the only way to play, IMHO, and they are proven winners via
probability theory … quite frankly, it’s why I’m here”!
Another great day for signals service subscribers, as we see well over 100%+
returns on capital at risk for the day … “if you don’t know what’s going on,
LEARN! … the new “tutorial” will be up New Year’s Day, along with a host of
files to help you … or, just sign up for the signals and let us do the work for you
… it only costs pennies a day”.
And while we make hay here, over at Turnkey our PAMM gets mugged … and
while I wish I could I do managed funds via NADEX markets, it’s not possible
due to regulatory reasons … so, the next best thing is for you to control your
money, and do the signals trades when given … as I stated yesterday, make
50%+ per day on risk capital of $500, and at the end of year ONE, you got $62
Grand … leverage it higher, and who knows … all for the cost of less than a
paper in the morning? … seriously? … yea, seriously!!
I’m outta here mi amigos … until tonight’s open … Onward & Upward!!
UPDATE @ 4:15PM EST: RUT2000 binaries have CLOSED and we receive
our guaranteed profit from last night … no lottery ticket wins today.
-vegas
OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY
WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES IN 20
OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, & STOCK
INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?
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