LEARNING TO BE A MASTER MANIPULATOR

 

“What the Saudi’s do to the oil market!”

“My, my … they are quick learners aren’t they”? … I am of course, referring to 

the Saudi’s, and there clever manipulations of the oil market … I wake up 

today expecting to see weakness in oil to exploit, and then read how the 

Saudi’s overnight let it slip that production in April will be held back … and 

of course, shorts panic and puke, price rockets higher in minutes … and then 

nada the rest of the day.

Who are the fools here? … well, it certainly isn’t the Saudi’s, who’ve 

discovered that “loose lips” beats throwing money at the oil market … it 

doesn’t matter if it’s truthful [it never is], it serves its purpose of stabilizing 

oil until worldwide demand comes back. Only traders suffer, and who cares 

about ‘em? … right, nobody.

The good news today, is it looks like FX is heating up … about frickin’ time, 

and tomorrow should see some wild action if schedules hold and aren’t 

cancelled … tonight’s open for tomorrow’s trade should see some interesting 

premiums … I’m just hoping they can be reasonable for a volatility position, 

and not priced insanely high … we’ll see.

Lately, FX has been a graveyard trade … meaning, it’s close to playing a slot 

machine … most days suck, but there are days stuck in there that make up for 

the bad ones that lose money, but not enough to make good on all the losses, so 

it’s simply a slow grind lower. With today’s run in GBPUSD & GBPJPY, these 

2 pairs look to have bottomed on the 20 Day Range MA’s, and are turning 

higher quickly … let’s hope it continues. I’m willing to give the markets the 

benefit of the doubt on the way up in ranges, but not willing to play when they 

are heading lower.

Back to oil … caught between the proverbial rock & hard place of weak 

worldwide demand buttressed by production cuts to the supply side … looks 

like VIX in this complex is being crushed, and until the 20 Day Range MA 

starts again to turn higher, paying the nasty high premiums to trade this stuff 

via the call spreads isn’t worth it … we’ll be back later to this complex, but for 

now I’m leaving it alone, cuz it can’t & won’t move.

Onto tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas

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