“I only hope the authorities notice!”
The collapse of volatility, which is ongoing & most definitely planned by the
central bank manipulators, hasn’t gone unnoticed. Yesterday on ZH the
following article, linked directly below.
when-will-it-finally-end
Quite a crash, but born out by the data in the 20 Day Range MA’s I keep
track of and publish each Sunday, on the blog updates. We’ve known for a
while that the 3 most volatile FX pairs have slowed down to a crawl, and
more importantly what to do about it … which is, not trade them unless the
appropriate numbers are there. And lately, they’ve been MIA, although
GBPJPY did have two decent days this week due to the “Brexit” lottery
FUBAR, thank you very much Pols.
WTI Crude Oil is a little bit more troublesome, cuz I think it still has a ways
to go before bottoming … the ranges just aren’t there, and unless today sees
some big whopper of a range later on, the 20 Day Range MA is gonna go lower
on Sunday again … and lo & behold, what we see more times than not is the
infamous “Flying Wedge of Death” {FWD] show its ugly head and infect the
market … and in a market that is slowing down, you simply aren’t gonna get
the extended ranges necessary to either recover from a loss, or make any
significant profit from a position that runs … what you get are “false
positives” and/or chop.
Today’s action very troublesome in oil for another reason … the call spreads
are too far apart to offer any kind of protection on a position … either we
enter a position where the market is too far under a floor, or the alternative is
the floor is too far away … and the way oil is bouncing around like a lab rat
on crack, I’m not willing to risk 70 cents to make far less than that … and
these were the options presented to us today in oil. NADEX needs to do a
better job pricing their call spreads, not just in oil, but in a whole host of
markets where they are to “Hoover Dam” wide to be of any use … “yea, good
luck with that”.
Now, oil is starting to get close to the 56.00 floor on one of the call spreads, but
with a $2 range, where does it go with 3 hours to expiration? … and even then,
you’re paying a hefty 20 cent premium, so even if you get a corrective move
higher, premiums will evaporate in your face … and for that risk, you end up
making very little in return … by the same token, do you sell it now that it’s
gone “Thelma & Louise” to the tune of $2 in 50 minutes? … and what do you
expect the range to do? … on a pop back where do you puke? So, not very
many decent options to explore in oil today.
FX pairs? … talk to me when the 20 Day Range MA’s go higher … until then,
unless the dealers make an honest market, you’ll be a loser on the “volatility
call spread strategy” … right now, you got better odds with a slot machine.
We’ll see what Monday brings … blog update Sunday … until then mi amigos
… Onward & Upward!!
Have a great weekend everybody!
OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY
WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES
IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX,
& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?
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