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Wednesday, March 27, 2019

GETTING BACK TO “NORMAL”

“In other words … it’s US versus the scumbag banks!”

It’s taken a while this month to be sure … too long for my comfort, but the 
numbers were there this morning in the call spreads in GBPJPY, and we 
made the trade. As signals subscribers already know, this entire month has 
seen exorbitant premiums … so much so, that plenty of days you need to see 
ranges in excess of 150+ PIPS just to break even. 
  
Crude oil continues to be a disappointment, and I don’t see relief here until 
we get closer to the OPEC meeting in May … until then, it’s a constant back 
and forth battle between supply concerns and weakening global growth, and 
depending on what day it is, who are the ones that have to be concerned 
about price today, the longs or the shorts … in short, a “chopfest” for the ages 
with little interest in establishing a trend that is going anywhere.

Both GBPUSD & GBPJPY seeing the infamous “Flying Wedge of Death”  
[FWD] today, as scumbag LP’s make sure both long and short position 
holders feel the pain … moves wickedly quick on every little rumor, half 
rumor, and stop hunt they can dream up. As the day has worn on, I get the 
distinct feeling delay is going to happen again, regarding “Brexit”, and that 
more than a few accounts are long … I don’t get the impression the trade is 
short, and that’s where the real risks lie, IMHO. What it means is simply 
this; “any and all rallies from here on “Brexit” positive news, unless off the 
wall crazy positive, will be met with selling cuz people are already long and 
will be looking to liquidate" … well, you gotta sell to somebody, and I don’t 
think the banks are going to be willing buyers. On the downside, it’s 
radically different, cuz it could get ugly quite quickly over any real 
disappointment in Cable’s prospects. We’ll see.

Today’s trade initiation ticket directly below.

click on images to enlarge

On the rally up to within 1 minute of the high for the day, I liquidated. Quite 
frankly, the trade was getting too crowded given 1) the length of the day, and 
2) the almost straight up action over 2 ½ hours. The liquidation ticket directly 
below.


And from here, it’s been nothing but down, with some chop mixed in and 
some sharp rallies to shake some traders out. What’s important to recognize, 
though, is how the call spread premiums shrink when the market corrects or 
retraces a move up/down. There’s nothing subtle about it, they kill premium, 
and today is no different. All told after commissions, we netted about 50%+ 
on risk capital in the trade.

Looks like more “Brexit” BS coming tomorrow, if I’m reading the news wires 
correctly … we’ll see what happens. I’m outta here … until tomorrow mi 
amigos … Onward & Upward!!
 
Have a great day everybody!

-vegas
 
OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 
WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 
IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 
& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?





 

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