SUNDAY UPDATE: THE REAL QUESTION

 

“The question I’d love to ask NADEX this week!”

The real question to ask going into this week is, “wil NADEX make decent 

markets through their one & only market maker, IG Group, London, this 

week in anything/everything Cable … meaning of course, GBPUSD & 

GBPJPY … or, are they gonna continue to quote extremely wide bid/offer 

spreads, often times in excess of 5 or 6 PIPS when you take into account 

round turn commissions? … we’ll have to wait and see of course, but all I can 

say is that last week they embarrassed themselves by pretending to have a 

market … they didn’t.

Directly below, the 20 Day Range MA charts for the upcoming week.

 

click on any chart to enlarge

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As you can see from the charts above, oil continues its downward ways in 

terms of range, and since the bottom in oil late last year, its lost about 50% of 

the range value … nothing to do here until it turns around … mess with it, 

and it’s an invitation to lose money.

Onto the week … Cable should be crazy this week, so it’s simply a question 
of 1) the right level of call spread premiums, and 2) does NADEX shoot 
themselves in the head and drive away business with bid/offer spreads that 
would make Vito Corleone blush? We’ll see shortly! … until tomorrow mi 
amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!

-vegas
 

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

 

THE LOCUSTS HAVE ARRIVED

“Is it too much to ask to make an honest market!?”

I feel like the locusts have finally arrived to destroy financial markets … the 

only thing left before I throw my laptop into the ocean, is if all the water turns 

red … at that point I fear, trading may not matter anymore … and it sure feels 

like that’s where we’re going.

Is it too much to ask NADEX to make call spreads that make fucking sense? 
… do they always have to be 400 miles apart, from floor to ceiling? … is it 
possible to get your lousy ass market making parent, IG GROUP, LONDON, 
to make honest markets without “vig” that would make Vito Corleone blush 
with envy? Cuz if you look today at things, it’s a supermarket of bullshit that’s 
being offered up to traders. In other words, today we got Mr. Jack Squat for 
choices in GBPUSD & GBPJPY, without bending over and grabbing ankles 
for the privilege.

Oil for its part, putting in the obligatory sub range up/down, screwing traders 

via the “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD], all the while raping premium on the 

turns … again, until oil starts to become more actively traded and the 20 Day 

Range MA starts to rise again, we simply have to leave it the hell alone or we 

get visited by Sil & Paulie on Tony’s orders and get whacked.

And now that the next, all important “Brexit” vote is out of the way, the 

staggered call spread premiums in GBPUSD, that I was watching most of the 

morning, have totally collapsed … even though Cable quickly dropped 50 

PIPS, all that happened is that the call spreads flipped sides on the profit, but 

the premiums built into the equation have been brutalized … from the 50’s 

down to the teens, just like that … now you know why I didn’t recommend 

anything going into the vote … it’s a suckers play 99% of the time, and if you 

sell it instead, that other 1% kills your account, so no way to win here.

Onto next week … I’m outta here … Sunday night sees the blog update 

… until then mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great weekend everybody!
 

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

WHAT NEXT? … LOCUSTS?

 

“And he hasn’t even started trading yet!”

“Well, that escalated quickly to the downside last night, didn’t it”? … and by the 

time NADEX opened one hour later last night, the call spreads in

anything/everything Cable were skewed so badly, there was nothing you could 

do but lose money or sit … I choose wisely to sit … floors & ceilings way out of 

whack, thanks to the “monkey hammering” in Cable, when it became known 

DUP from Ireland isn’t behaving in the “Brexit” comedy … this morning, the 

new call spreads, out at around 8 AM EST, with premiums so large you could 

choke a horse, didn’t make anything better … “yup, back to the same old shit, 

different day syndrome we’ve become accustomed to in FX”.

Crude oil, for its part, only moved when President Trump weighed in on too 

high oil prices, and even then did very little. The oil complex has got issues 

now, not the least of which is no “MoMo” in either direction, making for 

choppy, worthless trading at best … at worst, it’s the “Flying Wedge of 

Death” [FWD] that ends up killing accounts cuz it won’t move after it sets 

off whatever buy/sell signals you’re using … “if I didn’t know better, I’d say 

the banks know where those levels are, and intentionally breach them to fuck 

retail specs … nahhh, couldn’t be”. [snark]

I’m very disappointed with NADEX, especially in GBPUSD … there is no 

reason whatsoever to have 3 or 4 PIP spreads, then add 2 PIPS for RT 

commission, making our net cost to trade 5 or 6 PIPS … you can  

“optionality” all you want, and make other excuses, but when you only have 

ONE MARKET MAKER [THEIR PARENT COMPANY IG GROUP, 

LONDON], it leads to less than competitive spreads, slippage, & and general 

“scumbaggery” on their part, and believe you me if there’s nobody there to 

compete with them, that’s what we get … well, news flash for NADEX: 

STUFF IT!, I ain’t tradin’ it under those conditions … this is 2019 not 1999, 

where internet electronic trading platforms had Cable bid/offer spreads 

generally at 5 PIPS … what a frickin’ joke.

We’ll see what tomorrow brings … I’m outta here … until tomorrow mi 

amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!
 

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

GETTING BACK TO “NORMAL”

 

“In other words … it’s US versus the scumbag banks!”

It’s taken a while this month to be sure … too long for my comfort, but the 

numbers were there this morning in the call spreads in GBPJPY, and we 

made the trade. As signals subscribers already know, this entire month has 

seen exorbitant premiums … so much so, that plenty of days you need to see 

ranges in excess of 150+ PIPS just to break even. 

  

Crude oil continues to be a disappointment, and I don’t see relief here until 

we get closer to the OPEC meeting in May … until then, it’s a constant back 

and forth battle between supply concerns and weakening global growth, and 

depending on what day it is, who are the ones that have to be concerned 

about price today, the longs or the shorts … in short, a “chopfest” for the ages 

with little interest in establishing a trend that is going anywhere.

Both GBPUSD & GBPJPY seeing the infamous “Flying Wedge of Death”  

[FWD] today, as scumbag LP’s make sure both long and short position 

holders feel the pain … moves wickedly quick on every little rumor, half 

rumor, and stop hunt they can dream up. As the day has worn on, I get the 

distinct feeling delay is going to happen again, regarding “Brexit”, and that 

more than a few accounts are long … I don’t get the impression the trade is 

short, and that’s where the real risks lie, IMHO. What it means is simply 

this; “any and all rallies from here on “Brexit” positive news, unless off the 

wall crazy positive, will be met with selling cuz people are already long and 

will be looking to liquidate" … well, you gotta sell to somebody, and I don’t 

think the banks are going to be willing buyers. On the downside, it’s 

radically different, cuz it could get ugly quite quickly over any real 

disappointment in Cable’s prospects. We’ll see.

Today’s trade initiation ticket directly below.

 

click on images to enlarge

On the rally up to within 1 minute of the high for the day, I liquidated. Quite 

frankly, the trade was getting too crowded given 1) the length of the day, and 

2) the almost straight up action over 2 ½ hours. The liquidation ticket directly 

below.

 

And from here, it’s been nothing but down, with some chop mixed in and 

some sharp rallies to shake some traders out. What’s important to recognize, 

though, is how the call spread premiums shrink when the market corrects or 

retraces a move up/down. There’s nothing subtle about it, they kill premium, 

and today is no different. All told after commissions, we netted about 50%+ 

on risk capital in the trade.

Looks like more “Brexit” BS coming tomorrow, if I’m reading the news wires 
correctly … we’ll see what happens. I’m outta here … until tomorrow mi 
amigos … Onward & Upward!!
 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas
 

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

TOMORROW LOOKS INTERESTING

 

“When you call the market, and this is the response you get!”

GBPJPY finally getting some breathing room to make some coin from the 

vastly overpriced call premiums from the open last night, EURJPY not so 

much, and in GBPUSD you’d have been toast … all in all a mixed bag … oil? 

… don’t even go there, cuz the next OPEC meeting isn’t until May.

Tomorrow appears to be the day SHTF in Britain RE “Brexit” … well, we’ll 
see cuz they change their minds so often, and I’m interested in tonight’s 
premiums to see just how overpriced they can get. If they’re reasonable, we’ll 
make the trade, if bat shit crazy they can have ‘em … simple as that.
 

I’m tired of sitting around watching high premiums either drift to zero, or 

making just a little … if NADEX can’t price this stuff correctly, the only 

option we have is to sit … don;t like it, but whaddaya gonna do?

  

We’ll see what tomorrow brings … until tomorrow mi amigos 

… Onward & Upward!!

 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas
 

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?