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Tuesday, February 12, 2019

WTF IS GOING ON HERE?

“That look you get when you know somethin’ is up, but don’t know what!”  

I don’t think I’ve seen markets so slow and unresponsive, quite like what 
we’ve seen the last 2 days … it’s unreal. If I didn’t know better, I’d say 
traders have gone on strike, sick of the bullshit, overt manipulation by banks 
across the board. “Cuz literally folks, nothin’ is moving … GBPJPY hasn’t 
moved 5 pips in hours, and the ranges are some of the smallest I’ve seen in a 
very long while”.

Contrast what we see today, and go back 7 weeks to Christmas Eve, when the 
world was coming to an end in financial markets … since then, the 
manipulators and their BFF pals, the scumbag LP banks, have absolutely 
killed volatility in the marketplace … it’s not often you see all of the volatile 
markets we follow here going lower via their 20 Day Range MA’s at the same 
time, but what is truly remarkable is that NADEX continues to see every night 
on the open, very high call spread premiums in stock indices, crude oil, and to 
some extent FX … somebody has to be paying it, and I can’t figure out why, 
cuz premiums should be lower than where they are at currently.

In contrast, before the “December debacle” in stock indices, we had 
opportunity after opportunity in the RUT2000 almost every day … “as if 
somebody flipped a light switch, aaaaaaand it’s gone”! Premiums have only 
come down about 10% - 15% since the peak, not nearly enough for high 
probability trades that are going to be profitable.

Oil, for its part, seems to be content sitting in the low 50’s chopping around, 
not really going anywhere for weeks, but simply chewing people up and 
spitting them out with losses … and like their brethren in the stock indices, 
premiums for call spreads here are obscenely high … there just isn’t any way 
you can make the case for any trade in here given the nature of the market 
today … it’s not moving, it’s simply chop, and it looks like it wants to stay 
here for a while.

GBPJPY is in hibernation mode, a state it rarely sees … directly below, in 
succession respectively, is today’s daily, the second from October 2016 [right 
before Trump’s election], and February 2015, approximately 4 years ago.

click on any chart to enlarge



Aside from the uncertainty of the 2016 election, which undoubtedly put people 
on the sidelines, and taking away days around major Holidays, these are the 
only times in the last 4 years we’ve seen this kind of lethargic trading action, 
in one of the world’s most volatile cross pairs … I’d say, it’s time to break the 
mold.

There’s no question, that these last days have been, to put it mildly, a bucket 
of shit in terms of volatility … quite frankly, it wouldn’t matter what market 
you want to look at, they’re all melting ice cubes sitting on the sidewalk … the 
difference with the FX crosses, is that by the nature of the math, meaning the 
play between the numerator and denominator, even the tiniest dollar moves 
generate moves in the cross … usually, but not the last 5 or 6 days … what 
trading history tells us, is that this isn’t gonna last for long.

In the early AM tomorrow, first up sees GBP inflation data, and later U.S. 
inflation data … if GBPJPY can’t move tomorrow, with data out of two 
countries influencing the cross, and put in some kind of decent range 
[up/down makes no difference to us], then it ain’t gonna ever move again 
… and while I’m being overly sarcastic, the way anything is moving lately, it 
sure seems some days like the fix is in … IMHO, tomorrow breaks that to 
pieces. We’ll see what tonight’s open brings for price via the call spreads 
… I would generally anticipate a few PIPS higher, and given the news cycle 
tonight and tomorrow, we most likely will see an expanded range … question 
is, how much? … we’ll see.

And with that, I’m outta here … until tomorrow mi amigos 
… Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!
 
-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 
WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 
IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 
& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?






 







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