WHEN IT CAN’T GET WORSE … THEN DOES!

 

“Oh Oracle of all knowledge … what the hell is this crap!?”  

How much is China now part of trading? … “you’re finding out this week, cuz 

with them closed for Lunar New Year, markets simply got no idea what to do 

… FX a joke, stock indices are dead, oil confused, and gold more joke than 

market”. And even with all of this, call spreads simply overpriced for the 

volatility we are seeing. Nothing to see here Sheeple, move along.

The only call spreads even worth exploring are the volatile FX pairs … they 

are at least in the “normal” range, with some days offering a bargain, but as 

we see today with EURJPY, it’s simply a function of watching an ice cube 

melting on the pavement of a road in mid July … it won’t move, and no matter 

how great the call spread price, without movement you’re toast. With China 

closed all week, though, you’re risking major theta decay in the mid to later 

hours of the U.S. session, if you take FX call spread positions. Today sees this 

played out in spades, as finally GBPJPY starts to move, and EURJPY sees a 

little life [not much, but a little], but if you overstay your welcome timewise, 

you will pay a heavy price when getting out.

I’m watching gold & oil today, and with oil it’s “Hoover Dam” near impossible 

to get a decent reward / risk profile on any trade involving the call spreads 

… the premiums are simply way, way overpriced … the binaries move so fast, 

when oil blimps the other way, I’m more convinced than ever it’s a market 

that gets “spoofed” by the market makers and any market orders get filled 

not where you were thinking. Gold for its part, simply won’t move … and if 

nothing is moving, you can’t make money … period.

Not expecting much tomorrow, but on Thursday the BOE has an interest rate 

meeting, so GBPJPY could be a potential volatility call spread opportunity on 

Wednesday night … in any event, we’ll see what turns up. Until tomorrow mi 

amigos … I’m outta here … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!
 

-vegas

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