FX NOT FEELIN’ IT & CRUDE IS STUCK

 

“What every NADEX market looked like this morning!”  

FX pairs not really moving like they should given the premiums they 

demanded last night, and crude oil acting like the psychotic nutjob it’s 

become lately … some choices huh?

Really nothing to do … I can’t put it any simpler than that … just no good 

trades to make. Even when oil moves, the call spreads are so overpriced they 

barely move, cuz they take out premium … add to that the extremely wide 

call spread floors & ceilings, and there isn’t anything you can do that makes 

sense for a trade … you’re either putting up huge margin, or your call spread 

is 50+ cents out of the money [OTM] and you still pay 20 cents for it … “gosh, 

all that I need now is for oil to move 70 cents in my profit direction to breakeven 

… wut? … yea, seriously and that leaves very little choice to make except sit this 

one out”.

Meanwhile, over in stock indices land, volatility is being taken out and shot by 

the manipulators, so there’s zilch to do there. That leaves FX, where like oil, 

you need huge moves just to break even … screw that, you simply pass.

Onto tomorrow … I’m outta here mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!
 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas
 

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

DOWN, DOWN, & MORE DOWN IT GOES

 

“Listening to volatility crash … another central bank manipulation!”  

What I’ve been writing about for the last several weeks at a minimum, finally 

born out by Bloomberg, with the chart directly below. 

 

click on chart to enlarge

“Let’s be clear here … volatility is literally being destroyed by central banks in 

practically every market. Most noticeable has been FX, where despite 2 days in a 

row of “Brexit” lottery trades in GBPJPY would have been winners, volatility in 

EURGBP has cratered to levels I haven’t seen before … add to that the overt 

manipulation of the stock indices, the death of gold & silver this week, and about 

the only things showing any movement at all is either USDCNH [not today 

though], and crude oil … and in the case of crude all it took were some Tweets 

by Trump and some uber bullish oil inventory reports to get it moving … Oy”!

And if you happen to be unlucky enough to trade interest rates, here’s a nice 

article from ZH highlighting the death of volatility in that complex, directly 

below.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-27/central-banks-have-killed-vol

-again-treasury-volatility-hits-all-time-low

And if you somehow believe all this is some kind of coincidence, I got some 

great beachfront property in Kansas you surely will be interested in … “this 

ain’t no accident mi amigos, but a carefully coordinated attack on markets by 

central banks for the benefit of the 0.001% … simple as that”!

  

But, crude gave a great buy signal today for signals service subscribers 

… directly below the details.

 

blue for buy duh

At least one market has moved! … and while I got out and left some coin on 

the table, it didn’t exactly react the way I thought it should given the uber 

bullishness of the oil inventories report … it should have gapped through 57.00 

on the news, and when it didn’t I liquidated … “meh no problem, cuz seconds 

matter when judging the impact of news … fiddle fart around and it most likely 

costs you” … but nonetheless a nice gain.

FX acting like it wants to break out of the volatility doldrums, but one or two 

days does NOT a trend make … they need higher 20 Day Range MA’s to show 

me they’ve broken free and can trend higher range wise for weeks on end 

… so far we haven’t seen that.

Onto tomorrow … I’m outta here mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!
 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas
 

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

 

 

THE MARKET MEAT GRINDER

 

“You don’t always get what you want!”  

Well, what can you say really about any of these markets today? … “start off 

with not much, cuz outside of some “Brexit” lottery talk, that saw Cable act 

psychotically like it’s on crack, and thus once again kill traders of all stripes, 

nothing else did much of anything except chop … EURJPY a complete basket 

case of a market, and WTI Crude Oil spending most of the day in suicidal mode, 

jumping up/down 50 - 70 cents per barrel in minutes, without going anywhere 

… if you were looking for some kind of trend to make you money, you were 

simply out of luck”.

FX pairs have gotten to the point, where they need to start exhibiting 

consistent daily volatility, and not just “one & done” like GBPJPY today 

… cuz what’s gonna happen is that for every day like today, you get 3 or 4 

of complete shit in terms of range, and if you’re playing the “volatility call 

spread strategy”, you’re going to end up getting ground down into a pulp.

WTI crude oil for its part, seems to be caught in a range of 52 - 57 on the 

front month, and as today’s action shows, there is no mercy for those trapped 

at bottoms and tops, cuz this thing roars away at the speed of light and the 

next thing you know stops are being hit off on the other side … “I’m more 

than a little surprised crude today had no downside action whatsoever, given 

Trump’s “price is too high” tweet yesterday … all we saw was panic selling after 

rallies, but we saw no action below yesterday’s close the entire day … and given 

the nature of the quickness and scope of the decline, I’m not gonna buy rallies in 

crude hoping for more … while I’m somewhat constructive on oil’s price, it’s not 

gonna go galloping away to the upside, if and until China & the U.S. come to 

some sort of trade deal … otherwise, I’ll wait for pullbacks, and we saw none of 

that today”.

I watched oil closely all day, but quite frankly off of every single retreat in 

price came an almost immediate rally in price that went straight up … this 

happened 8 times today … yea, 8 … all inside a small range that barely saw 

$1 per barrel for the entire day … this in a market that currently has a $1.70, 

20 Day Range MA … on track to go lower this week as well unless things 

heat up some. If this isn’t the infamous “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] 

killing traders, I don’t know what is!

So, we bide our time and wait for what we want in a trade, and it didn’t 

happen today … onto tomorrow … until then mi amigos 

… Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas
 

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

THE NEW PARADIGM: POLS & APPARATCHIKS

 

“Like if you’re long oil & then Trump says something … Oy!”  

And just like that, Trump becomes an oil analyst and crude tumbles … “as 

I’ve said before, it’s all Pol’s & Apparatchiks all the time, and nothing moves 

without ‘em … problem is twofold … 1) you can’t predict when they open their 

Pie Holes, and 2) markets move at the speed of light until “crickets”, where it 

then dies and goes sideways ‘till the next time”. And that’s all there is folks!

So, you either leave it alone, or buy the rally or sell the break … doing the 

later almost insures account destruction, so that leaves the former by default. 

Not really any good choices here.

Meanwhile, over in Europe & the U.K., they’ve fucked up “Brexit” so badly, 

nobody has any clue what’s going on, including those making policy … a 

third grade class of retarded kittens could do a better job of managing  

“Brexit”, which of course has paralyzed FX, cuz everybody has wised up 

and refuses to trade it anymore until it’s over … whenever that is … the end 

result being volatility has hit the wall and died for now.

Bottom line is, we end up with another “spoiled” day of trading … why? 

… cuz once the Pol [today it’s Trump, tomorrow it’s ?] or Apparatchik moves 

the market, it’s done for the day … most likely, nothing left but crumbs and 

the gnashing of teeth … and there isn’t a “Hoover Dam” thing we can do 

about it. Don’t want to sell it $1.80 lower into the hole and expect volatility to 

bail me out when there isn’t any … although longs are trapped some via 

positioning. And sure enough, “Thelma & Louise” she goes.

Until tomorrow … how frustrating, but whaddaya gonna do? … until 

tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!
 

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?

SUNDAY UPDATE: MORE PAIN FOR VOLATILITY

 

“So says anybody who’s been buying volatility lately!”  

On the volatility front, things are looking rather bleak … the 20 Day Range 

MA’s for practically everything continue to trend lower … FX is a graveyard, 

where I seriously doubt there are gonna be any volatility trades this entire 

week cuz 20 Day Range MA’s are so low. Directly below, all the charts.

 

click to enlarge any chart

 

 

 

 

 

 

One look at EURJPY, GBPUSD, & GBPJPY sees nothing but trouble, and 

stock indices are trending lower right along with oil … not a pretty picture. 

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!
 

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 

WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 

IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 

& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?