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Sunday, January 20, 2019

SUNDAY UPDATE: IT’S ANYBODY’S GUESS FROM HERE

“A perfect metaphor for today’s markets!”  

I’m left this Holiday weekend with a case of “WTF”, as I look at some of the 
charts of the 20 Day Range MA’s … truly baffling, to say the least. For 
example, the DAX30 has gone ballistic [see chart below], while stock indices 
generally are quieting down and sloping lower with their respective MA’s 
… not the DAX30, and with the problems in the E.U., it makes no sense to 
me.

Likewise, the relative difference in EURJPY versus GBPJPY is also a little 
startling … granted all the bullshit “Brexit” rumors flying by at the speed of 
light, but the difference between the range’s of the two remains historically 
very large, in terms of how they are trading … one bat shit crazy and the other 
on sleep medication.

In any event, directly below the 12 of 14 markets we cover and the most 
current 20 Day Range MA’s. [Gold & SP500 are over on traderzoogold 
blog site.]

click on any chart to enlarge







One thing to notice also, is that the 5 week MA for GBPJPY is awfully high 
… I’d expect this to come down some over the following weeks into Easter, cuz 
over the last month it’s added approximately 160 PIPS … yea,  
“duh Brexit duh”, but even so that’s a helluva lot of PIPS to add to the weekly 
range, meaning I’d be really careful what you pay for volatility in this pair 
going forward.

Directly below, for the first time, is the chart of the daily range of GBPJPY 
versus the opening NADEX CALL SPREAD buys for the volatility strategy, 
that opened the night before when the day began. I’ll be tracking GBPJPY, 
GBPUSD, EURJPY going forward. I’ve left off the last 2 FX pairs, cuz I only 
have one day’s history … they’ll be included starting next week.


And for those wondering why I haven’t done any gold trades via NADEX, or 
recommended any Call Spreads, it’s cuz NADEX [for some reason] has 
extremely wide “floors & ceilings” with regards their call spreads … $50, with 
another being $100 … when’s the last time gold moved $50 or $100 in a day? 
… and so, the spacing is almost always off which makes pricing a disaster, and 
that’s why I haven’t done anything … in the gold binaries, the lack of a decent 
range makes pricing out of the money binaries very, very cheap … and while 
you might think buying a gold binary $3 out of the money for 20 is a good 
deal, good luck when it spends the next 3 hours in a 50 cent range and your 
binary is now bid at 3 with an hour to go before expiration … I haven’t 
recommended any trades here for complete lack of any trading action … until 
and unless things pick up, you are simply wasting money to the market 
makers.

The Call Spread action in the stock indices has me completely baffled … the 
ease and speed of these markets to run up/down in seconds is unnerving 
… ZH had an article recently about how liquidity in the SP500, meaning # of 
contracts bid under the current price, has never been lower … a few years 
ago it was in the thousands … now, it’s between 100 - 200 contracts … which 
means trading the call spreads is a nightmare.

Oil has settled down somewhat, and action returning to more normal 
expectations … most likely I’ll be returning to this complex for some 
recommended algorithm trades this week in the call spreads … volatility 
trading here, though, isn’t nearly as good as it is in FX, simply cuz the 
premiums are way too high when the day starts … get to the New York 
morning, and there’s at least one call spread that can generate an algo 
signal … so, don’t be surprised to see some oil trades going forward.

Tomorrow the MLK Holiday, and U.S. markets are closed, meaning NADEX 
is closed. I’ll have my usual blog up in the early afternoon after Europe closes. 
Until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great Holiday weekend everybody!

-vegas

OUR NADEX SIGNALS SERVICE IS UP & RUNNING … DAILY 
WTI CRUDE OIL SIGNALS & “VOLATILITY” STRATEGIES 
IN 20 OTHER MARKETS, INCLUDING COMMODITIES, FX, 
& STOCK INDICES! … “what on earth are you waiting for”?





















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