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Friday, January 31, 2020

OIL SEES THE $50 HANDLE … NO END IN SIGHT

“So says every oil trader who’s tried to get long!”

I have no idea where the bottom is for oil … OPEC is trying to hastily call a
February meeting to cut production, but is facing push back … let’s face it, the
world is awash in oil, and with China imploding and maybe setting the world into
a depression via the coronavirus, getting long oil is like staring into the abyss
… trouble comes when the abyss stares back.

Blog update on Sunday … until then mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas


Thursday, January 30, 2020

CRYPTO MAINTAINS ITS POISE

“A round of applause for Bitcoin [BTC], if you don’t mind!”

Remarkable that BTC has remained well bid during the latest coronavirus
pandemic … the smartest guys in the room had assured everybody a few weeks
ago, that BTC was headed a lot lower, with some suggesting outrageous levels on
the downside … here in a few months [May to be exact], BTC goes through another
“halving”, meaning the amount of BTC “miners” get to verify the block chain of
transactions gets cut in half … all other times have seen price explode after a
“halving”, so it’ll be interesting to see what the later part of 2020 looks like.

No doubt, though, given the profligate nature of central banks & governments to
print “QE funny money” and inflate fiat currency, more & more people around the
world turn to crypto to “save themselves” from government … and quite frankly,
over the next 10 years, crypto will explode like you’ve never dreamed of, and while
I used to think John McAfee was nuts for predicting BTC at $1 million dollars per
coin, the more I study the dynamics of the crypto space, the more institutions
adopt BTC as an asset, the more I’ve come to believe he may in fact be right
… and while it’s not gonna happen tomorrow, there’s no question the U.S. Dollar
is on its last legs as a reserve currency … that job will move to crypto as sure as
I’m sittin’ here.

Today sees a somewhat slow range day in BTC … not much going on, but I
would note it’s doing well staying above $9K, and is well bid … until tomorrow
mi amigos … Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas


Wednesday, January 29, 2020

MORE OF THE SAME, JUST A DIFFERENT DAY

“Sums up crude oil & crypto pretty well, IMHO!”

Any way you want to slice the oil trade, it’s nothing but a continuation
day-after-day of the same shit … blow the shorts out and rally, then blow the
longs out with a “Thelma & Louise” … pick your poison ...  geopolitics, OPEC, oil
inventories reports, etc., it doesn’t matter cuz the market won’t discriminate in
screwing you … it’s been so long since oil has been in some kind of trend, I
forgot what it looks like … simply back & forth between $52 - $60, with the
occasional blimp on either side to hunt stops, it’s nothing but a “meat grinder”,
best left alone … and quite frankly, given the trading conditions versus other
markets, for example NDX100 at PRIMEXBT, you have  a much better shot of
making money in an “88/6/6” market with better trading conditions than you do
in oil … and I don’t see oil getting any better anytime soon.

For crypto, specifically BTC, it’s simply too expensive to trade … if you’re wrong
on the trade, that $10 - $13 cost is gonna bite … quite frankly, given the cost
structure of crypto exchanges, and taking into account the need to hedge and fill
customer orders, I don’t see the costs coming down soon … someday they will,
but for now most places that trade crypto heavily have a -0.025% “maker fee” and
a 0.075% “taker fee”, and that’s if they are aggressively competitive for traders
… PRIMEXBT comes in at 0.05% on each trade, so they simply cut the middle
… that’s not gonna change until factors outside their control within the industry
change as well … so don’t look for crypto to get much cheaper this year.

… until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas


Tuesday, January 28, 2020

JUST CLOSE OIL DOWN AND SPARE US

“Well, I was hoping to trade some crude oil!”

Crude oil is toast … stick a fork in it, it’s dead … as a market to be involved with
via a CFD, leave it the hell alone, or you’re gonna wish you had those pins in your
face … the pain would be easier to take!

As for crypto, BTC sees a move over 9K, which it promptly gives back inside a
lackluster range … probably some OK algo signals to buy earlier today, but as I’ve
said before, until the 20 Day Range MA moves over $400, it’s too expensive to
trade given the level of IVIX … the industry needs lower costs, and eventually they
will get it, but for right now it’s very costly to trade, and on the days that are
lackluster in terms of IVIX, you’re gonna wish you were trading something else.

… until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas


Monday, January 27, 2020

NO JOY IN THE OIL KINGDOM

“Oil will turn you into this!”

Nothing positive you can say about either space … oil is stuck, and crypto
“fiddle farts around”. And while diddling isn’t entirely bad, it is when the cost
structure to trade it is too “Hoover Dam” high … nothing new under the sun
here.

… until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas


Sunday, January 26, 2020

SUNDAY UPDATE: GLOOM & DOOM IN OIL

“Want to know why crude oil has a hard time rallying? … here ya go!”

Who the hell needs OPEC? … the U.S. is a “net exporter” of energy now, unlike
the days of Jimmy Carter when we were at the mercy of others … it’s very hard to
gauge the “war premium” that is built into oil right now, especially after the
clusterfark with Iran a few weeks ago, but it’s clear any decent rally gets sold
pretty hard & fast if given the chance … given the relative high cost to trade
crude from a CFD perspective, if the market is in “limbo”, why attempt to trade
it?

Directly below, this week’s 20 Day Range MA for WTI Crude Oil.

click on ANY chart to enlarge

Directly below, the 20 day Range MA’s for USD crypto pairs.







At a minimum some stabilization of range’s … BTC especially needs a higher
value over $400 before I’ll look at it again.

Directly below, the 20 day Range MA’s for BTC CROSSES.





If you haven’t been over to traderzoogold to check out the “VIX MATRIX TABLE”,
go over and take a look, cuz I’ve put a new column that shows the total cost to
trade pairs relative to their average ranges … and it’s not good for crypto at
present, as costs are really high … at some point somebody does come along
and lower costs, and then the entire industry adapts overnight and costs suddenly
go down … over the last 20 years, we’ve seen this in FX and in CFD’s, in spurts
and dashes, and it will eventually happen in crypto … for now, though, the
industry seems content to keep high trading costs as a staple, with most crypto
exchanges keeping their -0.025% “maker” fee and their +0.075 “taker” fee on
crypto transactions … PRIMEXBT simply levels the field for traders with 0.05%
fee on every trade no matter whether you’re entering market orders or limit
orders. Like I said, someday somebody with big bucks changes the game and
moves the paradigm, but it doesn’t appear imminent … until tomorrow mi
amigos … Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!

-vegas















Friday, January 24, 2020

THE OIL TRAIN WRECK … CRYPTO SLEEPS

“Oil says hello to the $53 handle!”

Oil heads south touching the $53 handle, and if this coronavirus gets worse than
current perceptions, say hello to “Thelma & Louise” … a very good short article
today over on ZH on oil, and why the coronavirus matters, the link directly below.


Right now, I can’t think of a worse market to trade than oil … high costs to trade
given current CFD costs, upside limited due to a worldwide glut of crude, and
slowing demand, especially from China, and downside a nightmare given the
world’s geopolitical environment … that spells “nightmare” in my book.

Meanwhile, crypto sleeps with BTC today barely having a $200 range … again,
the cots to trade BTC are just to “Hoover Dam” high given the 20 Day Range MA
… you’re simply paying through the nose for action you ain’t getting!

Blog update on Sunday … until then mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas


Thursday, January 23, 2020

IN SEARCH OF AN HONEST MARKET

“Crypto can be magic!”

Crude oil continues to go south, simply cuz the world is swimming in crude, and
the longs are getting shaken out due to the coronavirus scare in China, and it
potential impact on oil demand in the world economy … crypto today [BTC] putting
in a halfway decent range of approximately $375, and the IVIX was above average
… some really good algorithm short signals in BTC today.

The problem of course isn’t Bitcoin [BTC] as a market … the problem is the cost to
trade it, cuz it’s approximately 10X MORE EXPENSIVE TO TRADE than anything in
FX, including gold & silver … and this is a key reason I’m not touching it until its
20 Day Range MA is over $400 … I’m not handing money to a brokerage house just
to trade something … “c’mon Dudes!, gimme some value”!

Outside of FX CHOICE for their oil CFD’s, which are right there at 3 cents per
barrel net cost to trade, there isn’t anything else available that makes sense
… PRIMEXBT used to have the best conditions, then somebody somewhere got
to them and they changed it, more than likely, out of reasons of pure greed
… “well, fuck that, I’m not paying upwards of 7 cents a barrel to trade oil, when it
used to be around 2.4 cents per barrel … that’s just stupid! … quite frankly,
nobody in the world is interested in offering a really good crude oil CFD, and
while the FX CHOICE OIL CFD I give a grade of “C+”, the rest are pure shit and
total ripoffs.

… until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas